The Russian invasion of Ukraine at full scale has been a disaster. In the last two and a quarter years, Russian troops suffered a staggering loss of 640,000 soldiers. The Ukrainians destroyed two thirds of Russia’s tank force before the invasion and eliminated half of their Black Sea naval fleet. They have caused tens billions of dollars in losses in defense equipment.
The Russian Federation has seen the cost of war increase due to the sanctions imposed by the international community. Over a thousand international companies have shut down their operations within Russia due to the restrictions. The restrictions have also cut Russia’s key banks off from SWIFT, a global financial messaging system.
The economic sanctions had a significant impact on the decline of Russia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as the Kremlin suffered losses of hundreds of billions.
Under normal circumstances, these losses would have been sufficient to end any war. If any other warring nation had suffered losses of this magnitude, they would have retreated from the invasion. The war chest of Russia has been bolstered with an almost limitless lifeline – support from China.
China has been one of the main donors to the Russian Federation, which is becoming increasingly isolated, over the past two-and-a-half years.
According to BBC estimates the trade between China and Russia increased by 64% from 2021 to 2023. In 2023, Russia earned $129 billion by exporting goods to China.
The Kremlin also has strengthened its energy ties to Beijing, and Russia’s crude exports are expected to increase by 24% by 2023. These interactions have helped the Russian economy to remain afloat despite the extensive international sanctions.
The Chinese government has reacted strongly against the sanctions imposed on Russia. Recently, the United States and its allies and partners have imposed sanctions on companies “providing goods and services that enable Russia’s war efforts” in Ukraine. Beijing has responded by undermining international sanction to hold Russia responsible for the invasion of Ukraine.
According to an assessment by the US Office of Director of National Intelligence, the Chinese government “is pursuing a variety economic support mechanisms for Russia which mitigate both the impact on Western sanctions and export control.”
China is also increasing its military support to Russia. Recent reports have shown that many components of Russian weapons, such as missiles and drones, are manufactured or resold by Chinese firms.
China also boosts the Russian military-industrial complex through dual-use technologies that are essential for high-precision manufacturing, including advanced weapons manufacturing.
The Chinese also provide protective gear for Russia, as well as “assault weapons, drone shipments, body armor, and other supplies.” The Russians have put these supplies to use on the battlefield.
These Chinese efforts allow the Russian Federation to continue its war effort. China helps the Kremlin by providing economic assistance and military equipment to Russia. This allows it to acquire additional resources and enhance its military capabilities.
If the China-sized gap in the Western sanctions regime is not addressed, it will result in more deaths in Ukraine and a worsening of the devastation.
One way to do this is to put pressure on China so that it stops supporting Russia in the war. What can be achieved?
1. Sanction Chinese companies that aid Russia’s war
First, the international community should continue to exert pressure on Chinese companies that provide materials and equipment for Russia’s war effort. The United States introduced new sanctions against Chinese organizations that aid Russia in the war earlier this year. The European Union imposed sanctions on Chinese companies that do business with Russia. The United Kingdom also imposed new penalties on these firms.
The Chinese government responded by urging Western nations to “stop sanctions against Chinese firms for their Russian ties,” however, these pleas were ignored. This indicates that the West‘s efforts to penalize Chinese firms for aiding Russia have had an impact.
2. Diversify your trade
Second, the international community has the opportunity to reshape their trade relationship with China. China’s economy is heavily dependent on global trade as it is the world’s biggest exporter. Diversifying trade is one way to pressure China to stop its support of Russia. The West can weaken China’s monopoly on the global market by engaging other entities that provide inexpensive goods and services.
3. Pressure on Chinese banks
Third, the international community can apply pressure to Chinese banks. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace states that China is heavily dependent on Western markets. Beijing would immediately comply if Chinese banks were banned from SWIFT. It would not want to “lose access to Western markets” which would severely affect its economy.
While it may be difficult for the international community to reach a consensus, sanctioning China is a necessary action, as Beijing is undermining the effect of international sanctions against the Kremlin and prolonging its invasion in Ukraine.
To stop further death and destruction caused by Russia’s war the international community needs to rise to the occasion. It must explore new ways of holding it accountable. Punishing China for its support of Russia could tip the balance, persuading Beijing to cut ties with Moscow. This would lead to an end to the war.
It may be a bold gamble but it’s a risk that is worth taking.
Editor’s note. The opinions expressed in the Opinion section are those of their authors. The editorial team of Euromaidan Press may or may not agree with them.
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