Visitors watch South Korea’s K9 155mm auto-propelled howitzer at a ceremony marking the 76th Anniversary of Korea Armed Forces Day on October 1, 2024. ( Jung Yeon Je / AFP).
South Korea has hinted that it may change its long-held stance against providing Ukraine with direct weapons, given the dramatic escalation in North Korea‘s involvement in Russia’s full scale invasion.
Seoul has so far only provided non-lethal and humanitarian military aid to Kyiv. However, a South Korean government official said on Oct. 22 that this could change and the direct supply was being considered.
On Oct. 18, South Korea had warned that Pyongyang sending soldiers to Russia posed a “grave threat to security” and that it would “respond with all available means, in cooperation with international community.”
Experts who spoke to The Kyiv Independent said that South Korea’s position will not change anytime soon, since Seoul is bound by its own laws.
The Kyiv Independent quoted Jenny Town, senior fellow and director of Stimson’s Korea Program and 38 North at the Stimson Centre.
South Korea makes a hint at change
South Korean law prohibits exporting weapons to active conflict areas.
In June, Seoul announced that it would reconsider its position in relation to Ukraine following the signing of a security accord between Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un (right).
This statement was not made public, but the recent news that North Korean troops were being sent to Russia has brought the issue back up.
Yonhap reported on October 22 that Seoul was considering sending a team to Ukraine to monitor North Korean forces. It also reported that the government was reportedly considering giving Ukraine armed support.
Source: “While watching for signs of North Korea and Russia military cooperation, response measures will be taken step by step,” the source told Yonhap.
Sources said that defensive weapons would be sent to Kyiv before lethal weapons. They also added that if South Korea does provide lethal weapons, they will consider doing so indirectly.
Town said that despite Seoul’s words, supplying Ukraine with weapons directly isn’t an option at the moment.
It’s been a consistent position because it’s law. She said that it’s not a simple policy choice, and added: “The president cannot just say ‘Hey I’ve changed, here’s what we are going to do,’ he must pass legislation.”
Currently, this seems unlikely. This week, South Korean President Yoonsuk Yeol saw his approval rating drop to 24,1 percent. It is the lowest since he assumed office in 2022.
Town said that he does not have the bipartisan support needed to pass legislation, because he is “in such a weak position at this time.”
“If there is going to be more military assistance to Ukraine it’s likely to be through increasing indirect channels,” Town says.
South Korea’s indirect supply
South Korea’s arms industry is thriving. While much of it is driven by the need to defend itself against an ever-belligerent neighbor in the north, South Korea is also one of the largest exporters of arms.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), South Korea is currently ranked 10th in terms exports of arms.
South Korea, in particular, has a large number of 155mm artillery rounds, which Ukraine urgently needs.
Vann Van Diepen is a consultant and a former U.S. State Department employee. He told the Kyiv Independent that the most immediate impact of South Korea’s direct assistance would be ammunition, because the West has been tapped out.
According to Ukrainian officials just holding the frontlines requires 75,000 per month, while fending of another major Russian offensive may double this number.
North Korea is reportedly providing half of the total. Meanwhile, Russia is firing about 300,000 rounds a month.
Ukraine’s Western allies have long pressed South Korea to send 155mm rounds to Ukraine to help combat Russia’s full scale invasion.
Seoul was constrained by its laws and had to find a way to contribute.
This was done by supplying ammunition to Ukraine, namely 155mm artillery rounds, indirectly via the U.S. The U.S. supplies Ukraine with shells from their stockpiles and South Korea provides replacements for the U.S.
The U.S., Europe and other nations have struggled with ramping up production at the rate required to fuel Europe’s biggest land war since World War II. This means that the limiting factor for South Korea is not how many it can send but rather how many others can produce.
What else can South Korea indirectly provide?
Van Diepen said South Korea produced a range weapons that Ukraine would want, but there are challenges and difficulties with supplying them even indirectly.
South Korea produces the K9 Thunder 155 mm self-propelled howitzer. This would require a different arrangement with a tertiary country and currently there is no talk about this.
The same is true for the K239 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS), which is considered at least as good as the HIMARS system made by the United States. This system was a game changer for Ukraine when it arrived in the summer 2022. It allowed Kyiv’s forces to target Russian forces on occupied territories with greater accuracy than before.
“Then, there are tanks,” said he, adding that there were also issues with training, support, and logistics.
“You can’t send the tanks, and then say, “OK, guys, hop on and let’s go.”
South Korea produces several types of ballistic and cruise missiles. However, these would face the same problems as those currently faced by Ukraine with the weapons supplied by Western allies.
Ukraine’s Western allies continue to refuse to authorise deep strikes against Russia with long-range weapons such as ATACMS or Storm Shadows.
Van Diepen added: “There will be lines they won’t cross.”
“Ammo and artillery are the most likely.”
Chris York is the news editor of the Kyiv Independent. He was the head of news for the Kyiv Post before joining the team. He spent almost a decade in Britain working for HuffPost UK. He holds a MA in Conflict, Development, and Security, from the University of Leeds.
Read More @ kyivindependent.com