According to Estonian intelligence reports, Russia could suffer up to 40,000 casualties in October. This would be one of the largest monthly losses of the war. North Korean troops are also moving closer to the contact line.
Exclusives
Military Personnel
UK intelligence: Russian forces have entered Selydove and are providing additional options to advance towards Pokrovsk. The fall of Selydove will give Russian forces control over vital ground along E50 highway. This would compromise Ukraine‘s southern defence line to Pokrovsk.
Attack on Russian Rosgvardia convoy in Chechnya Unknown gunmen killed one serviceman by shooting at a Rosgvardia Ural vehicle.
Frontline report: Ukrainian Marines survive heroic last fight during withdrawal from Kursk’s Lyubimovka. Russian pincer movements isolated Ukrainian Bridgeheads near Olgovka & Lyubimovka, forcing Ukrainian units to retreat to defensible position.
Intelligence and Technology
The Washington Post: Satellite photos show an unusual expansion of a closed Soviet biolaboratory in Sergiev Posad. Satellite images reveal an expansive new complex that is taking shape. Experts say it has the hallmarks of a highly-secure biological research facility.
Ukrainian intelligence: Russian forces provide an interpreter to every 30 North Korean soldiers. Intercepted communications reveal the logistical difficulties Russian officers face as they try to integrate these foreign troops.
Estonian intelligence: Russia could lose up to 40,000 soldiers in October. Russia could suffer one of its highest levels of casualties in October, as Russian forces continue relying on what Estonian officials call “meat attacks”.
Rheinmetall provides 20 additional Marder IFVs for Ukraine’s defense in the war with Russia. Rheinmetall, a German company, has delivered 20 more Marder infantry combat vehicles to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. This will strengthen Kyiv’s defence capabilities in the ongoing war against Russia. The total number of Marders delivered to Ukraine since March 2023 is now approximately 200.
WSJ: Russia supplied satellite data to Houthis in order to attack commercial vessels. Since November 2023 Houthi militants have carried out more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels.
International
Reuters: EU plans stricter Russian sanctions enforcement amid Trump comeback concerns. European officials are preparing to prepare for possible US policy changes under a Trump presidency by developing mechanisms that will ensure the effectiveness of Russian sanctions over the long term.
Hayashi, Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary: North Korean troops in Russia are a threat to regional stability. Tokyo warns about regional security risks due to the strengthening of military ties between North Korea and Russia.
South Korean intelligence: North Korea will send more troops to Russia. People familiar with intelligence say that NATO could intensify its support for Ukraine in response.
A diplomatic dispute breaks out between Hungary and Croatia regarding Ukraine. The Croatian Minister said that his country must support Ukraine or else it could become like Serbia and Hungary, “which now publicly support Putin.”
Norway has allocated $105 million to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure recovery. The funds will be used to support the installation of solar panels in schools and hospitals. This will provide additional power for the national grid and backup systems for critical infrastructure.
China denies knowledge of North Korean troops stationed in Russia, while the EU condemns their deployment. EU condemns DPRK military cooperation with Russia as China denies knowing and calls for a de-escalation in the “Ukraine Crisis.”
EU: The presence of North Korean troops in Russia shows that Russia is not interested to achieve peace. High Representative Josep Borell said EU is “deeply concerned” by the deployments of North Korean troops in Ukraine and will coordinate a response.
Political and Legal Developments
Georgia’s pro Russian ruling party is seeking a constitutional majority at tomorrow’s elections. Georgia’s parliamentary elections on 26 October will determine whether the country chooses to be influenced by Russia or European integration.
Belarus, Russia’s most important ally, accuses twelve Ukrainians of spies. Minsk, since the beginning of Russia’s all-out conflict, has increased detentions and conducted strict interrogations at border points.
Ukrainian NGOs ask ICC to respond to UN Secretary-General Putin’s meeting. A joint statement condemns Guterres’s visit to Russia, and his meeting with Vladimir Putin who is currently under a ICC arrest warrant.
New Developments
WSJ reveals Musk’s regular communication with Kremlin from 2022. The investigation revealed conversations about Starlink, Ukraine and personal matters in the context of Musk’s growing Trump support.
French retail giant Auchan has finalized the terms of its exit from Russia. French media reports that French hypermarket chain Auchan found local buyers for its Russian operations, and has entered final negotiations to exit the market.
Putin does not deny the deployment of North Korean forces. “If there are pictures, they reflect something,” Putin replied to a journalist who asked about North Korean troops deployed in Russia.
You can read our previous daily review here.
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