Christo Grozev is an investigative journalist who has worked with Bellingcat. He is currently the Head of Investigations for The Insider. He warned that Russia had contingency plans if “Georgian Dream‘ was defeated in Georgian parliamentary elections scheduled for 26 October.
The revelations show that Moscow is determined to stop Georgia from following Armenia in breaking away from Russian influence, even if this means staging electoral fraud, violently suppressing the protests, or using disputed territory as leverage to secure Russian dominance of the country.
Grozev, as reported by OC Media said he received hacked messages from employees of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service SVR proposing “radical” measures to ensure that Georgia doesn’t become a “new Armenia.”
Armenia has had long-standing close relations with Russia. However, these ties have deteriorated in recent years, following the Velvet Revolution of 2018 and Russian inaction on the Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict.
Grozev said that while the messages did contain no specific plans, he assumed that they would mirror the Belarusian scenario in which Russia “would conspire with the ruling party to proclaim an implausible Mega-Victory.”
Grozev said that, as in the case of 2020 Belarusian Presidential Elections, such blatant fraud would lead to widespread protests which would be “suppressed with an unprecedented repressive power.”
To make the suppression more acceptable to the Georgian society, it is possible that the Kremlin will orchestrate a “peaceful return” of South Ossetia & Abkhazia in the form of a confederation. Grozev, however, said that such a plan was a “trojan horsing” which would “forever subjugate Georgia.”
“If Russia’s plan works, it will be a end to a free Georgia that we know,” he said.
Kakha Kaladze, Georgian Dream’s Secretary General, said during the 26 October elections that “according preliminary data received from local election headquarters, Georgian Dream has already been guaranteed a solid majority in the Georgian Parliament.”
Kaladze said that “an unprecedentedly large turnout was recorded, which leaves no hope for success for the radicals.”
He still urged voters to support Georgian Dream which aims to “protect at all costs the national interests and interests of Georgia, as well as the interests of each citizen of our nation.”
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