Edison Research released a statement on November 1 stating that the Central Election Commission had announced the official results of the October 26 elections showing the Georgian Dream Party as having won 54 percent. This was a dramatic difference from the credible polling numbers. Edison Research’s exit surveys gave the GD a 40.9 percent.
The 13-point difference in Edison’s estimate versus the official result (54% for Georgian Dream) cannot be explained by the normal variation and suggests local-level voting manipulation, said Rob Farbman, Edison Executive Vice President. “Edison’s review found the deviation from statistically predicted results was widespread but most pronounced at certain polling locations located in rural areas.” These locations are most likely to have been the sites of the largest vote manipulation on the polling place level.
The company states that it has conducted exit polls in Georgia, and that its previous polls accurately reflected the official results. The company states that the average understatement in the Georgian Dream vote across five exit polls conducted before 2024 is less than 2%.
Edison Research conducted 12 national polls between 2023 and 2024. “These polls suggested Georgian Dream’s vote would be lower by about 10 points than their 2020 vote. Edison notes that Georgian Dream actually exceeded their 2020 numbers in the polls by 6 points.
“The exit polls used in Georgia 2024 are the models used during previous Georgian elections.” Edison Research will also use the same models in the upcoming U.2. Edison Research conducts election exit polls on ABC, CBS CNN and NBC.
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