Key developments for October 30:
* Special forces and North Korean soldiers are 50 km away from the Ukraine border, according to FT
Biden: Ukraine should strike back at North Korean troops if they invade its territory
Zelensky: No confidentiality between partners – White House is not to be trusted over Tomahawk missiles
* Kremlin denies Russia and Ukraine talks on stopping energy strikes
* South Korea is not reportedly considering direct 155mm ammunition supply to Ukraine
The Financial Times reported that around 3,000 North Korean soldiers who arrived in Kursk Oblast, were housed in barracks just 50 kilometers (30 miles), from the Russia-Ukraine boundary. This was based on unnamed Ukrainian intelligence officials.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced on October 28 that North Korea had sent troops into Russia to take part in its war with Ukraine. They were then deployed in Kursk Oblast. Recent reports suggest a small number of North Korean troops may already be in Ukraine.
The U.S. intelligence agency estimated that the number of troops was around 10,000, whereas Ukraine put the total at 12,000.
According to the Financial Times, Ukrainian intelligence officials have doubts about the combat effectiveness and cite communication problems with their Russian counterparts. This is a major hurdle that Moscow and Pyongyang must overcome.
A South Korean delegation is scheduled to visit Ukraine in the second half of the week in order to discuss cooperation and share information about North Korea’s troops stationed in Russia.
CNN reported on October 29 that U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan had also urged China to use its relationship to Pyongyang to apply pressure on North Korea and to withdraw its soldiers from Ukraine’s first line.
North Korea’s entry in the war comes as Russia’s long-running campaign in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas has gained dramatic momentum in recent days. Analysts say that Moscow’s forces have advanced at a rate not seen since early in the war.
Biden says Ukraine should strike back at North Korean troops if they cross its territory
Joe Biden, the U.S. president, said on October 29 that Kyiv must strike back against North Korean troops “if these troops go into Ukraine.”
A Pentagon spokesperson added in a separate press briefing that the recourse by Moscow to North Korean troops is a reflection of a “dire” situation with its manpower.
Biden responded to a question about their arrival by saying, “I am concerned, yes.” He added that Ukraine should strike back in the event that the troops entered Ukrainian territory. However, he did not elaborate.
In a separate press briefing on October 28, Pentagon spokesperson Major-General Pat Ryder said that a “relatively few” North Korean troops were already in Kursk Oblast. This echoed recent comments made by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin who said that thousands more troops would be heading there in the next weeks.
A South Korean delegation is scheduled to visit Ukraine in the second half of the week in order to discuss cooperation and share information about North Korea’s troops stationed in Russia.
Zelensky criticizes the White House for leaking Tomahawk missiles
The request for Tomahawks by Ukraine was “confidential” information between partners, said President Volodymyr Zelensky on October 30 following a leak to the U.S. press.
The New York Times reported that on October 29, according to unnamed U.S. officials the request for Tomahawks with a 2,400-kilometer (1,500-mile) range was part of a secretive “nonnuclear deterrence” package included in Ukraine’s win plan.
The sources told the outlet Washington was not convinced that Ukraine needed these weapons and was reluctant to provide them due to the limited number.
It was a confidential information between Ukraine & the White House. How can we understand these messages? Zelensky spoke at a press conference with journalists from Nordic nations.
“This means that there is no (confidentiality) between partners.”
According to Zelensky’s account, Ukraine requested these missiles under the condition that they would only be deployed if Russia refused deescalate and end its war.
“I said this is a prevention method. Zelensky said, “I was told it’s an escalation.”
Kyiv has been trying for additional assistance from U.S. president Joe Biden before his departure in January. Washington could reduce its support for Donald Trump if he wins the Nov. 5 election.
Zelensky, facing Russian military advances, and an uncertain Western support, proposed the five-step plan of victory, which contained steps that would supposedly end the conflict by 2025.
Several points of the plan have been met with a lukewarm reaction from partners. The White House continues to refuse to allow long-range attacks on Russian territory, and several countries are resisting an invitation by NATO for Ukraine.
Kremlin denies talks between Russia and Ukraine on stopping energy strikes
The Russian state news agency TASS reported that Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied alleged talks between Russia and Ukraine about mutually halting attacks on energy infrastructure on October 30.
The Financial Times reported on Monday that Ukraine and Russia were planning to resume talks about stopping the strikes against each other’s infrastructure for energy after the talks abruptly ceased in August after Ukraine’s Kursk invasion.
Peskov, in response to the Financial Times article, told the media that “there are a lot fake news stories now which have no connection with reality”.
According to a senior Ukrainian government official, Moscow has already reduced the frequency in recent weeks of attacks on energy infrastructure as part of a deal reached by their intelligence agencies, Ukrainian news outlet New Voice reported Oct. 30.
The agreement would be the most significant deescalation since Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion in Ukraine early in 2022.
On Oct. 21, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told journalists that Russia’s willingness to stop the strikes could signal a willingness for broader peace negotiations.
Ukraine is bracing itself for its harshest winter ever, with half its energy infrastructure in ruins. This is after Russia launched massive campaigns in the autumn and winter of 2023-2023 as well as again in the spring 2024.
Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, said that between March and August this year, Russia destroyed almost all hydroelectric and thermal power plants in Ukraine. He made these remarks on September 25 at the U.N. General Assembly, in New York.
South Korea is reportedly not considering direct 155mm ammunition supply to Ukraine
Yonhap reported on October 30, citing an official from South Korea, that the country is not currently considering directly supplying 155 mm artillery to Ukraine.
The source told the South Korean media agency that Seoul had not received a similar request from the Ukrainians and that the matter was not being considered. This comes amid speculations about South Korea’s changing stance on this issue.
South Korea has not directly provided lethal support to Kyiv, as its legislation prohibits the supply of arms to a conflict zone. However, unconfirmed media reports suggest that Ukraine obtained South Korean shells via the U.S.
Yoon Suk Yeol said that South Korea could change its stance due to the growing cooperation between Russia, North Korea and South Korea, especially in regard to the dispatch of North Korean soldiers to join the war.
This week, a South Korean delegation will visit Ukraine to discuss mutual cooperation and share intelligence about North Korean soldiers. Yonhap reported that Kyiv will also send a special representative to South Korea to discuss the issue this week.
The official told the news agency that it would take a few days for the Ukrainian side designate a special representative and finalize plans to visit and have discussions here.
Experts told Kyiv Independent South Korea could provide the most significant assistance to Ukraine by way of ammunition shells. South Korea not only has 155 mm artillery, but also 3.4 million 105-mm rounds that are compatible with some Ukrainian guns.
Ukrainian officials stated that just to hold the front against Russian forces, 75,000 shells are needed each month. Moscow’s troops are able to fire many times more shells than Ukraine. Approximately half of these shells are reportedly supplied by North Korea.
Russia is also believed be preparing to deploy 12,000 North Korean soldiers, at least some of whom will be in combat roles. CNN reported on October 29 that a small number of North Korean troops have already arrived in Ukraine.
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