The analysis by HarrisX, a leading U.S. consulting firm specializing in polling, data, and strategy, raises questions regarding “statistically unexplainable data discrepancies” by the Central Election Commission, amounting to more than 8 percent of the vote or at least 172,523 raw ballots across a minimum 27 districts.
HarrisX claims that the results of its analysis are the same even after the data is “weighted” with the CEC data, and when it fully accounts of any non-response biased, when the differences between the exit poll’s estimate of votes and the official CEC numbers are tested at the 95% interval which is the highest statistical threshold.
The analysis cites specific cases, examples, explains the methodology, weighting results by age, gender, and time of day and cites discrepancies across Georgia. For example, the results in Marneuli District, where according to HarrisX exit polls, Georgian Dream won 40 percent of the vote in 2024 but the official CEC result shows 80% of votes for Georgian Dream.
HarrisX states that it is confident in the results of its exit poll for several reasons, including its experience in polling and the number of Georgians surveyed, the voting methodology used, the trained local partners who were trained in advance by HarrisX, the confidentiality of its survey, and its consistency with the results from the only other non-Georgian exit poll conducted Edison Research. The organization notes that the results of exit polls for other questions in the survey are consistent with the results of the vote-choice question and other public polls. For example, 84% of respondents said they support Georgia joining EU.
HarrisX claims that the analysis, calibrated based on final CEC data, reveals “statistically unexplainable discrepancies”, amounting to more than 8 percent of total votes.
The organization claims that its comparative analysis of votes “identified unusual vote shifts” between the 2020 and the 2024 elections and between our Exit Poll results and the final 2024 CEC results. These appear to be far outside what could be accounted for by statistical variance or non response bias.
It concludes that even when the Exit Poll results are adjusted to reflect all the data parameters published by CEC, the final result placing Georgian Dream as 53.96% is simply statistically impossible.
HarrisX asks the CEC to provide “more information and answers for the sake of public transparency.”
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