Two U.S.-based pollsters commissioned by Georgian forces of opposition are questioning the results of the October 26 parliamentary elections, in which the ruling Georgian Dream Party was declared victorious. Opposition parties will organize another protest next Monday to contest these results.
Edison Research, hired to conduct an exit poll by Formula TV, a pro-opposition channel, pointed out significant differences between the results of its exit poll and those of the official count. This suggests “manipulation” in the voting process. Reuters reported that HarrisX, another U.S.-based pollster who conducted an exit survey for the pro-opposition Mtavari arkhi, called the official results “statistically unfeasible”.
This election is crucial for the future of Georgia. Voters will choose between a pro Western opposition that advocates for European integration, and the Georgian Dream Party, which leans towards Moscow and faces accusations against authoritarianism.
Election observers like the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe reported incidents of ballot-stuffing and voter intimidation. However, they did not declare the election stolen. Russia has denied any involvement.
Both Edison and HarrisX projected a parliamentary majority for Georgia’s main opposition parties. Georgian Dream was predicted to win the election in a separate exit survey by Georgian pollster GORBI commissioned by progovernment Imedi TV.
After the election, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Tbilisi. More demonstrations are planned. Georgia’s prowestern president has condemned the election as fraud.
Edison’s exit survey suggested Georgian Dream received only 41% of votes, 13 points less than the official vote of 54%.
In a statement, Edison’s Executive vice president Rob Farbman stated that the 13-point difference in Edison’s estimate versus the official result “cannot be explained by normal variations alone and suggests local manipulation of the vote.”
Edison’s review revealed that the deviations from statistically predicted results were widespread, but most pronounced in specific polling places in rural areas. Georgian Dream performed poorly in urban areas while it was able to achieve margins of up to 90% in rural areas.
Under Western pressure, Georgian state prosecutors announced an investigation into allegations of election fraud.
Two U.S.-based pollsters commissioned by Georgian opponents are questioning the results of the October 26 parliamentary elections, in which the ruling Georgian Dream Party was declared victorious.
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