View of destroyed Russian armored cars and tanks after Russian troops withdrew on October 5, 2022 from the town of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast in Ukraine. (Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency through Getty Images).
According to Kyiv, the Russian losses in Ukraine now exceed 700,000. This is just 77 days since they reached 600,000.
According to Kyiv the casualty rate among Moscow’s troops has risen in recent months. October saw an average 1,307 casualties per day. According to Ragnar Gudmundsson’s analysis of the Ukrainian statistics, six of the ten most bloody days for Moscow forces since the full-scale invasion occurred in October.
The figures do include dead, wounded and missing. These figures are in line with those of Western nations.
Bloomberg reported that the Russian tactic of throwing soldiers into what Ukrainian officials called a “meat-grinder” is working. Moscow has seized more ground in its war with Ukraine in the past week than it did at any other point in 2024.
The Kremlin is now in a difficult situation, as it needs more troops to continue its ongoing advances in Ukraine. The Russian Emergency Ministry published a manual on how mass graves can be dug during wartime on Nov. 2, despite not disclosing the losses it has suffered in Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent reported that “Russian military officials are trying to balance between the need for additional troops due to the wasteful manner in which they are fighting this conflict, and not wanting to have an actual mass mobilization.” Dr. Jenny Mathers is a senior lecturer at Aberystwyth University who specializes in international politics.
“It is tricky from a PR point of view, because they don’t really want to admit how dire the situation is, but they still need to get more people through the door in order to continue the war.”
Reports claim that Russian President Vladimir Putin mobilized for his full-scale conflict against Ukraine in September of 2022. This move was unpopular and led 261,000 people to flee the country.
Since then, Putin tried to avoid a new wave and instead relied on a variety other methods to increase manpower.
Conscription
Putin signed an order at the end of September to draft 133,000 Russians from October to January as part of a regular fall conscription campaign.
All Russian men between 18-30 years of age are eligible for conscription. If drafted, they must serve one year.
The Kremlin has limited options with these men.
Conscription in Russia predates the full scale invasion of Ukraine. It is more geared towards maintaining a domestic army in the event that Russia were invaded.
The Kremlin is one of the few organizations in the country to listen to and tolerate civil society groups made up of mothers of conscripts.
In March 2022, Putin made a public statement that no conscripts will be sent to Ukraine. This statement was proven false one day later.
Despite this, the Kremlin is still very sensitive about the issue of conscripts being used in Ukraine. The majority of its combat force relies on those who sign contracts voluntarily.
Money
The cold, hard cash is often the main motivator for Russian men to join the fight in Ukraine, especially those from economically weaker regions and migrants.
Putin ordered on July 31 an increase of the sign-on bonuses for new military recruits who will serve in Ukraine. The bonus has been increased to 400,000 rubles ($4,600).
The decree effectively doubled a lump-sum payment originally promised to recruits of 195,000 rubles ($2,260) in September 2022.
Some regions in Russia have imposed rates that are even higher. Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav gladkov announced on October 7 that residents will receive a record-breaking 3 million rubles ($31,200) in the country.
According to Rosstat, Russia’s federal statistical service, the average monthly salary across the country was reported as around 65,000 rubles (roughly $735) in June 2023.
“It is clear that money is what motivates people, but then the question arises, what happens to them when they reach the end of this pool of people?” Mathers said.
“Because, reportedly, there are some communities where all the men who can walk have been taken to the military.” Mathers says that Russia will have to eventually start luring men from more economically developed areas of the country such as the large cities. At this point, Putin could face unrest.
She said that “up to now, Putin had a deal with Russian society – these more prosperous sections will be isolated from real sacrifice.”
When does this change?
There is also the economic burden that comes with paying such large sums to such a large number of people.
Elvira Nabibullina, Governor of the Central Bank, said that Russia’s private and industrial sectors are struggling to compete against such wage offers. The country’s labor force as well as its production capacity is “almost exhaustion”, she added.
Criminals
The Russians are desperate for manpower.
Since summer 2022, Moscow has been recruiting prisoners for its war on Ukraine. First under the auspices the Wagner mercenary group and then directly through the Russian Defense Ministry.
Putin, indicating that the pool of applicants was shrinking, signed a law Oct. 2 exempting defendants from criminal responsibility if they joined the Russian army.
According to a source who spoke to the independent Russian investigative project IStories, about 100 people per Russian detention center will be sent to the Ukraine war.
The media outlet reported that there are 210 pre-trial centers in Russia. This means that 20,000 people could be sent to serve.
North Korea
No discussion of Russia’s manpower is complete without mentioning the latest recruits – North Korean soldiers.
U.S. Secretary Of State Antony Blinken stated during a press briefing on October 31 that 8,000 North Korean soldiers have been deployed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast for participation in the war against Ukraine.
And on Nov. 4, Andrii Kovalenko, the head of the counter-disinformation department at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said the first of them had come under fire from Ukrainian forces.
“The disclosure that North Korean soldiers may appear on front line is a result of catastrophic Russian losses,” John Foreman told the Kyiv Independent, the former U.K. defense attachee in Moscow between 2019 and 2022, last month, shortly before the reported deployment.
“Their military efficiency is questionable and they will be cannon-fodder for Ukrainian defenders.”
According to reports, Russia’s efforts without another wave of mobilization will not be enough to provide the army with the manpower they need.
Bloomberg reported on August 13 that regional officials were unable to meet an average of more than a quarter of their conscription quotas. Bloomberg cited two anonymous sources who said this could force Russia into considering a new mobilization.
The Ukrainian military is also faced with its own manpower issues. Roman Kostenko stated on November 2 that he believes it is necessary to mobilize at least 500,000 citizens in order to meet the current battlefield conditions.
According to an expert who spoke last week to the Kyiv Independent, the battlefield conditions for the Ukrainians are “pretty grim.”
Chris York is the news editor of the Kyiv Independent. He was the head of news for the Kyiv Post before joining the team. He spent almost a decade in Britain working for HuffPost UK. He holds a MA in Conflict, Development, and Security, from the University of Leeds.
Read More @ kyivindependent.com