The U.S. election for president will likely bring a new leadership to the largest supporter of the war, and could present new challenges for Kyiv.
A collage made by the Kyiv independent using the two photos. (L) Former U.S. president Donald Trump, Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. president, looks on during a discussion with faith leaders in Zebulon Georgia, U.S.A. on October 23, 2024. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images). (R) Vice-President and Democratic Presidential Nominee Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally to encourage early voting in Atlanta Georgia, U.S.A. on October 19, 2024. (Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images)
As Americans head to polls on November 5, Ukraine nervously watches the elections being held in its top Western ally, as the result could determine the fate of the country in its fight against Russia’s almost three-year old full-scale invasion.
The two candidates’ positions on whether to continue to supply Ukraine with weapons are so starkly opposed that some experts believe the winner will have a significant impact on whether Kyiv remains in the fight, or is choked off of supplies to the extent of capitulation.
Vice President Kamala Harris (60), the Democratic nominee, said she would stand by Kyiv “until Ukraine prevails in this conflict” and that if the Russian President Vladimir Putin were in the White House then her opponent would be in the Ukrainian capital.
Former president Donald Trump, the Republican nominee and current presidential candidate, blamed the outbreak of the war on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He has said repeatedly without providing any details that he would have the war resolved by or before his inauguration if he won.
According to reports, as Russia continues to make advances on the battlefield, Ukrainian officials have become more depressed about the future of the war. They fear that the outcome of the election could leave them fighting Moscow without much or any help from the U.S., or forced into a peaceful deal with unfavorable conditions for Kyiv.
‘Best-case scenario’ for Ukraine
Evelyn Farkas is the executive director of the McCain Institute in the United States, named after the late Republican Senator John McCain. She said that the best-case scenario for Ukraine would be a complete sweep by Harris and the Democratic Party, with the White House and both chambers taking place.
Farkas, a Kyiv Independent reporter, said that under this scenario, the U.S. could provide reliable assistance to Ukraine more than quickly. It would not only be able to do so with financial resources and weapons, but also by figuring out how to help Ukraine win.
The election will determine the amount of work that any president can accomplish.
Harris’ willingness to go all-in on Ukraine is yet to be seen. If her campaign statements supporting Kyiv in its fight against Moscow are anything to go by, she will likely continue a policy diplomatic and military support of the war-torn nation.
U.S. Senator Mark Kelly and New York Congressman Gregory Meeks, who is the highest ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee told the Kyiv Independent that they expect Harris to approach Ukraine in a similar way, but not identical to President Joe Biden.
Ivo Daalder told the Kyiv Independent that the Biden-Harris Administration has placed the defense of Ukraine at the same level as the avoidance of World War III. This is defined by the fear of an escalation between the United States and Russia.
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the Kremlin has repeatedly sounded the nuclear saber to deter support for Ukraine. Washington has been delaying the delivery of certain weapons, such as F-16 fighter planes and HIMARS, out of fear for Russia’s reaction.
The choice of Harris as secretary of state, the nation’s top diplomat, and national security advisor will certainly influence her policy toward Russian aggression across Europe and in Ukraine. The Harris campaign did not make any of its cabinet picks public before the election.
According to Politico and NBC News, William Burns is in the running for Secretary of State, along with Senators Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Chris Coons of Delaware, both Democrats; former Republican Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona; Linda Thomas Greenfield, the U.S. Ambassador at the UN; Samantha Power the head of the U.S. Agency for International Development and Pete Buttigieg the current U.S. Transportation Secretary.
All potential candidates for the position of state secretary are likely to continue a policy of strong support for Kyiv. Secretaries of State often want to leave a legacy by making bold decisions in foreign policy. Many of the candidates who work for Biden may continue to support the war in Ukraine.
The current White House’s cautious approach has been largely blamed on Biden, and Jake Sullivan his national security adviser.
If Harris wins, her policy towards Ukraine could be heavily influenced if Sullivan’s successor is chosen. Phil Gordon, the vice president’s national security advisor, is widely believed to be her first choice to fill the role.
Daalder believes a Harris-Gordon foreign policy team could be a chance for change.
“To the extent Gordon and Harris aren’t as fully bought into (the fear of escalation), there’s better opportunity for a change under Harris and Gordon, than there would be if Biden continued,” said Daalder who has worked and known Gordon for decades. He said that Gordon and Harris are less likely than Biden to be against Ukraine joining NATO.
“From the F-16s, to not providing HIMARS or ATACAMs to not being able strike deep within Russia with the Storm Shadow – that’s Biden. He said that no one else is as closely tied to this issue in the administration.
Harris avoided a question in October about Ukraine’s NATO membership by saying that Washington would address the issue “if and when they reach that point.”
Michael McFaul (former U.S. Ambassador) has expressed his opinion about a possible Harris presidency with Gordon serving as national security adviser. The Ambassador to Russia said that he believed the pair would have a positive impact on Ukraine.
“(Gordon knows Europe well. On the campaign trail, Harris is constantly mentioning her seven meetings with Zelensky. Michael McFaul is a professor at Stanford University, and co-founder of Yermak-McFaul Expert Group on Russian Sanctions. He spoke to the Kyiv Independent on November 3 in an interview. The expert group is headed by Andriy Yarmak, Zelensky’s chief of staff.
McFaul said, “I think that the transition to a Harris administration will be more like other changes where you get people with new ideas. I hope that these people will understand the importance of defeating Putin’s army in Ukraine.”
Reno Domenico is the head of Democrats Abroad Ukraine. He said that U.S. support to Ukraine in its almost three-year battle against Russian grinding assaults will depend on Ukraine’s willingness to fight.
He told the Kyiv Independent that “the U.S. will not support Ukraine if Ukraine does not want to fight.”
Trump — A ‘worst-case scenario’ for Ukraine?
Even if Ukraine maintains the will to battle, fears abound about a possible Trump presidency bringing an end to the war in unfavorable conditions for Kyiv.
Trump has repeatedly stated that he will end the war quickly, even saying he can do it in 24 hours without providing any details.
What worries Kyiv, and its allies in the world, is that any quick solution to the war will always involve massive concessions made to Putin. This includes ceding some 20% of the occupied territory to Russia as well as abandoning Ukraine’s ambitions to join NATO.
After the former President met with Zelensky this September in New York — their first meeting in five years — the Republican candidate said that if he were to win the election, he would make a quick deal to end war but that it was too early to say how.
Trump’s repeated assertions that he enjoys a good relationship and close contact with Putin are also cause for concern in Ukraine and elsewhere.
Domenico said, “We know what Trump will do.” “He has been in constant contact with Putin, his good friend.”
According to the latest book by renowned journalist Bob Woodward, Trump has spoken with Putin up to seven times since leaving White House.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Elon Musk has been in contact with Putin and other Kremlin officials, since late 2022. He has been a vocal supporter of Trump, and his satellite company Starlink is helping Ukraine’s Armed Forces.
Harris, on the other hand, said that she would not meet with Putin to discuss peace unless Ukraine was present.
Trump has tried to use his good relations with Putin to his advantage when negotiating with him about ending the war in Ukraine. McFaul warns, however, that giving Putin everything he wants in a potential peace deal will only make him want even more.
“Trump’s coming to power, and his signaling that he will reduce or eliminate the assistance to Ukraine is going to embolden Putin. He’ll think that my enemy is weaker now. McFaul told Kyiv Independent that this is the time to go after more, not less.
“I’m afraid that Trump doesn’t really care about Ukraine.” McFaul stated that Trump still cares about his personal relationship to Putin.
Farkas of the McCain Institute said that Trump’s team is responsible for his response to Russian aggression and other global risks, such as North Korea and Iran.
Farkas believes that a team consisting of Trump’s former National security advisor Robert O’Brien and former State Secretary Mike Pompeo could better understand the threats to the U.S.
According to reports, O’Brien is not the only candidate for a possible State Secretary under Trump. The list also includes Richard Grenell, a former acting Director of National Intelligence, as well as formerly serving as ambassador to Germany during Trump’s first term in office. Other candidates include Bill Hagerty – a Republican senator from Tennessee – Marco Rubio – likewise a Republican senator from Florida – and Mike Waltz – reportedly residing in Florida.
Trump’s cozy relationship, which is also friendly with Putin, with Hungary’s Prime Minster Viktor Orban who is openly against Ukraine’s aid and is a friend of his as well, is another factor that contributes to the concern that Ukraine may be left to fight on its own a much bigger enemy. Orban is expected to be emboldened by Trump’s return to the White House.
The two leaders have met several times, including in Florida in July at Trump’s Palm Beach Mar-a-Lago residence, almost immediately following the Hungarian leader’s meeting with Putin.
Orban, who attended the meeting, endorsed Trump in the upcoming election. In a tweet, he called the visit “peace mission #5.0” and wrote: “We discussed how to make peace.” The good news is that he will solve it!
During his first year in office, Trump slammed the U.S. transatlantic relations with a hammer and threatened to pull out of NATO. In response, the U.S. Congress passed legislation in 2023 which would make it impossible to withdraw the U.S. without the approval of the Senate or a Act of Congress.
Senator Rubio was one of the lawmakers who spearheaded the move. He is also one of Trump’s possible picks for the State Department.
John Bolton, Trump’s former National Security Advisor, who has disassociated himself from his former employer, said on November 3 that the U.S. withdrawing from NATO under a new Trump administration was a “real option.”
“It would have been a catastrophic error for the U.S. if they had withdrawn from NATO. But it’s possible in a second Trump Administration.” It would be a terrible loss for American and Western interests around the world,” Bolton tweeted.
If Trump is re-elected, Ukraine will realize its dependence on America and Europe will be increasingly asked for help.
Congressman Meeks said that if Trump wins, it is critical that Democrats maintain control of the House. Even if Harris wins the election, she will likely have trouble getting Ukraine aid through Congress. The House and Senate are currently divided, with Republicans in control of the House and Democrats in the Senate.
“(It’s) critical that Democrats regain control of the House – which has the purse-strings power – so we can deliver crucial support to Ukraine without delays and obstructions by extremist MAGA Republicans,” said Congressman Meeks in a statement made to the Kyiv Independent.
Others have tried to calm fears about Trump’s return to the White House, and what it could mean for Ukraine.
Boris Johnson, former British Prime Minister and one of Kyiv’s loudest supporters, is hopeful that a Trump Presidency won’t mean the end of American Support for Ukraine.
“I am very concerned about what people are saying, but I think that Trump will be strong based on what he has done before,” Johnson said in an CNN interview. Johnson had discussed Ukraine with Trump back in July. He referred to the Javelin rockets Trump approved for Ukraine back in 2017.
“I can’t believe a guy so passionate about his nation, about making America Great Again, will want to start his next term as president by allowing the Soviet Empire to be great again. I can’t imagine that he would allow that to occur.”
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