Donald Trump, the U.S. president-elect, watches during a roundtable discussion with faith leaders in Zebulon on October 23, 2024. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images).
Donald Trump did not mention Ukraine in his speech declaring his victory in the U.S. Presidential election on November 6, but he alluded as to how important his second term will be for a country devastated by Russia’s invasion.
“We did not have wars for four years.” Trump made comments about his first term in office, saying that he had only defeated ISIS.
“They said that he would start a conflict. I am not going to do this. I will stop the conflicts,” Trump added.
How does Trump plan on stopping Russia’s war in Ukraine?
This is the million-dollar issue that is being discussed in many capitals around the world, including in Kyiv and Moscow.
After Trump declared his victory, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky greeted Trump in a post on X in which he recalled the face-to-face discussions they had in New York City, in September.
Zelensky wrote: “We discussed in depth the Ukraine-U.S. Strategic Partnership, the Victory Plan that Zelensky presented to allies, and ways to end Russian aggression against Ukraine.”
“I am grateful for President Trump’s commitment in global affairs to the ‘peace by strength’ approach. “This is the exact principle that can bring just peace to Ukraine closer,” he said.
“We look forward a new era of strong United States of America, led by President Trump.
Zelensky’s “Victory Plan” has been broken down, but Trump has not provided any details on how he intends to end the war with Russia.
Trump has repeatedly stated that he could end “the war in 24 hours.”
Former businessman Trump, who in 1987 published “The Art of the Deal”, appears to believe that negotiating the ending of a war would be similar to negotiating the real estate price in New York City.
“I would tell Zelensky to stop. You have to make a deal. I would tell Putin that if you do not make a deal we will give him a great deal. In a July 2023 Interview, Trump said: “We’re going (to give Ukraine) more than what they have ever received if we must.”
“I will have it done in one day.” One day,” Trump added.
Zelensky, a prominent Ukrainian politician, has repeatedly urged Trump to provide more details before their meeting in September.
Zelensky said in an interview with Bloomberg Television published on July 3 that “if Trump knows how to end this war, he would tell us today.”
“If there is a risk to Ukrainian independence or if we lose our statehood, we want this to be known, we want it to be prepared for. We want to know… whether we will have U.S. support in November, or if we will be alone.”
Does Trump have a plan for peace in Ukraine?
Despite the fact that Trump has not revealed many details, numerous reports in the last year have provided some clues as to his plans to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. This quick deal strongly suggests that Ukraine was forced to cede territory to Russia.
The Washington Post reported in April that Trump would press Ukraine to cede both the Crimean Peninsula (which Russia occupied from 2014) and the Donbas region, which it currently controls a large part of, located in the far east. A source told the newspaper that he believed both Moscow and Kyiv wanted to “save face, they wanted a way out.”
Sources also claim that Trump believes that Ukrainians living in Russian-occupied territory would be “okay”, if they became part of Russia.
Reuters reported that in June, retired General Keith Kellogg, and Fred Fleit, two of Trump’s top advisors, proposed a plan to stop military aid to Ukraine unless the country agreed to hold peace talks with Russia.
Kellogg and Fleitz who served previously on the National Security Council of the Trump administration said that the proposed ceasefire will freeze the frontlines in their current positions.
Kellogg also said that the plan would include additional warnings to Russia, saying the U.S. will increase its military support for Ukraine if Moscow refuses the terms of the truce.
Fleitz said Trump responded positively to the plan, but added: “I am not claiming that he agreed or agreed with every single word of it.”
Steven Cheung, spokesperson for the Trump campaign, said at the time only statements made by Trump or his campaign should be considered official policy positions.
In July, Politico reported Trump was reportedly considering a deal with Russia in order to block the future NATO membership of certain countries. These include Ukraine and Georgia.
One source told Politico that Trump would be open to something that “would not allow NATO expansion, and would not go back to the 1991 border for Ukraine.”
The Financial Times reported last month, citing sources close to Trump’s team, that Trump planned to freeze the conflict.
According to the newspaper, Vice President elect J.D. Vance, in his September speech, outlined the idea to freeze the war by creating autonomous regions on both side of the demilitarized zones and leaving Ukraine out of NATO.
According to one Trump’s long-time advisors the new plan would rethink failed Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015. These agreements were never implemented. The Minsk agreements included a plan to create temporary autonomous zones in Russian occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, and other oblasts. These zones would be later fully reintegrated into the rest of Ukraine. The Minsk agreements did not mention the occupied Crimea.
The adviser said that the new plan will include enforcement measures and consequences for violating an agreement. According to him, it will be European troops who will maintain order, not NATO or U.N. Peacekeepers.
Fleitz, a CIA analyst who is now with the America First Policy Institute Center for American Security suggested in an interview to the Financial Times that Ukraine could be removed from the NATO agenda for a few years in order to force Russia to negotiate.
“We freeze conflict, Ukraine doesn’t cede any land, they don‘t give up their claims to territorial territory and we have negotiations, with the understanding that there probably won’t a final deal until Putin leaves the podium,” Fleitz stated.
What do Ukrainians think about Trump’s plans for the country?
Zelensky, along with other Ukrainian officials, have rejected the idea of a ceasefire which would cement Russia’s gains on the battlefield.
Zelensky stated in June that “when (Putin), gains strength, he may issue an ultimatum. He might ask for recognition of all occupied territories and to leave NATO.
“And there will many such conditions depending on how strong (Putin is) at that time. A ceasefire is a trap.
Kyiv also refused to compromise territorial integrity in order to end the conflict.
After Russia’s illegal annexation in 2014 of Crimea, Moscow declared that it would annex four Ukrainian oblasts by 2022. These include Donetsk and Luhansk as well as Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, all of which Russia does not fully control.
Oleksandr Merezhko, a Ukrainian lawmaker, told the Kyiv independent in July that Trump’s plans to grab land before he becomes president will not be implemented if he is elected.
Merezhko said that Putin cannot reverse his annexation policy.
“When Trump realizes that, when Putin is unwilling to make compromises he will be disappointed because there is no way of reaching a peaceful solution.”
“(Trump’s) goal is to be successful, not a failure. If he wants this, he must get Ukraine on board, and Ukraine won’t agree to any territorial concessions.”
What does Russia think about Trump’s plans?
Putin’s stated goal for the full-scale invasion to begin in early 2022 is to take the entire Donbas. In recent weeks, the Russian army has been making steady advances in the Donbas.
Putin’s ability to agree to a ceasefire and stop the war is less likely as Russia’s position becomes more favorable.
Moscow has questioned Trump’s ability in ending the war quickly, despite Trump boasting of his good relations with Putin.
Putin said in June that Ukrainian troops had to leave Donetsk oblast, Luhansk oblast, Kherson oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast as a precondition for peace negotiations. He also said that Ukraine had to recognize Russia’s illegal occupation of the regions, and give up any ambitions to join NATO.
Zelesnky rejected these conditions, comparing their situation to Adolf Hitler’s invasion of Czechoslovakia between 1938-1939.
Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesperson, said in reports on Nov. 6 that when asked about Trump’s comments about ending the war quickly, “Let us remember that we are dealing with an unfriendly nation, which is directly and indirectly involved a war against our State.”
Maria Zakharova, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Spokeswoman, said earlier in July that it is important to “be realistic” when evaluating what Trump says about negotiations for peace.
“We heard the statements. Trump said that he would solve the conflict in 24 hours. Then J.D. Vance stated that China is a greater problem for the U.S.
“It is important to distinguish between pre-election rhetoric and statements made by government officials with the proper authority.” Let’s be realistic when we discuss whether it is possible to resolve the conflicts.
Chris York is the news editor of the Kyiv Independent. He was the head of news for the Kyiv Post before joining the team. He spent almost a decade in Britain working for HuffPost UK. He holds a MA in Conflict, Development, and Security, from the University of Leeds.
Read More @ kyivindependent.com