On July 3, 2024 in Mykolaiv Oblast in Ukraine, a disarmed 3M9 antiaircraft guided missile can be seen at the Museum of Strategic Missile Forces. In 1994, Ukraine agreed that it would pass a test on nuclear weapons and missile capabilities and join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The Strategic Missile Forces Museum was created from one of the former Unified Command Posts. (Mykhaylo Palinchak/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Kyiv has flirted around the idea of nuclear deterrence, as the risk that Donald Trump, the U.S. president-elect, may end Washington’s support to Ukraine is looming.
The possibility of such a scenario had been raised weeks earlier, when in October, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he told Trump in September during a meeting in New York City he would either join NATO or develop nukes.
Zelensky claimed Trump had heard him, and that he said “it was a reasonable argument.”
Zelensky retracted that statement later, stating that Ukraine did not pursue nuclear weapons.
Zelensky’s statement has sparked speculation about whether a Ukrainian nuke weapons program is feasible from a technological and political perspective.
Experts claim that Ukraine can produce a primitive nuclear device within a few years, but it would require hefty investment.
“I guess everyone is gonna get nukes.” John Sipher, a former member of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Senior Intelligence Service, joked in a post on X on Nov. 6, commenting on Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5, presidential election.
Sipher, who is now a fellow with the Atlantic Council think-tank, was referring back to concerns that Trump’s return to power might lead the U.S. down an isolationist road, leaving Western allies including NATO members and Ukraine to ponder the need to defend themselves, without U.S. support.
The Ukraine inherited third largest nuclear arsenal in the world after the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1991. However, the warheads were produced in the Russian portion of the now-dissolved country. Kyiv gave them up under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in exchange for security assurances from the U.S.A., U.K. and Russia.
Kyiv would be in a very difficult position politically if it decided on nuclear weapons to deter Russia. It could cause a major backlash from Western allies on which Ukraine’s Armed Forces heavily depend for conventional weapons to fight against Russia’s full-scale invasion now in its third years.
“A nuclear weapons program would jeopardize (Ukraine’s Western partners),” Sascha Bruchmann told the Kyiv Independent. He is a military analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
“I can’t see any U.S. Government that would support Ukrainian nuke ambitions. Ukraine would bet a lot on political and military support. The political, military, and economic costs are prohibitive.”
In a meeting held behind closed doors, attended by the Kyiv Independent newspaper, top Ukrainian officials stated that the political implications would be too expensive.
Ukraine’s possible reasons for nuclear deterrence
In recent years, the Budapest Memorandum was criticized because Russia violated it openly by invading Ukraine and the U.S. & U.K. failed guarantee Ukraine’s safety. They have, however, provided Kyiv with massive amounts of weapons, the majority after Russia’s full scale invasion began in early 2022.
Analysts say that the calls for Ukraine to acquire nukes are a direct result of Russia’s nuclear threats and war.
“It is now clear that nuclear weapons used to be a deterrent tool, but are now offensive tools,” Claus Mathiesen told the Kyiv Independent. He was a former military attache and lecturer at Denmark’s Defense Academy.
“Russia has taken approximately 100,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian land and is threatening nuclear weapons against Ukraine should these territories be taken from them.” One option (for Ukraine) would be counter-deterrence – acquiring nuclear weapons on their own.
Mathers, Jenny Mathers, a lecturer on international politics at Aberystwyth University in the U.K., said Zelensky had “expressed very clearly the reason why many states have sought nuclear weapons.”
“They are seen by many as the ultimate guarantee of security against an attack from more powerful states, despite the fact nuclear weapons are of little to no use on the battlefield. They do not prevent states that possess them suffering military defeats in the hands of nonnuclear armed adversaries,” she told The Kyiv Independent.
Jyri lavikainen is a nuclear deterrence specialist at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. He also believes that Ukraine has “solid ground” when it asserts that it needs nuclear weapons to ensure its security.
“Russia’s decision, starting on the first day of invasion, to attack Ukraine with nuclear coercion has shown the dangers of not being under the nuclear umbrella,” he said to the Kyiv Independent.
Nuclear deterrence can be used to counter nuclear coercion. The best way for Ukraine to benefit from nuclear deterrence would be to join NATO as soon as they can.”
Ukraine’s nuclear arsenal and inherited capabilities
Ukraine is not a newcomer to the nuclear industry, despite its lack of nuclear weapons.
During the Soviet era, the Pivdenmash plant in the Ukrainian city Dnipro manufactured ballistic missiles that could carry nuclear warheads.
A nuclear weapons expert told The Kyiv Independent that Kyiv could easily produce nuclear-capable rockets. He spoke under condition of anonymity as he didn’t want to be seen endorsing a nuclear weapons program.
The Prydniprovsky Chemical Plant, located in Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, processed uranium for the Soviet Nuclear Program, preparing yellowcake as an intermediate step in processing uranium.
In Dnipropetrovsk oblast, there is also an uranium mine in Zhovti Vod.
Ukraine also has four nuclear power stations in the oblasts of Zaporizhzhia (Zaporizhzhia), Rivne (Rivne), Khmelnytskyi (Khmelnytskyi) and Mykolayiv. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is currently under Russian control.
Can Ukraine produce nuclear bombs?
Experts claim that Ukraine is technically capable of producing a nuclear weapon.
Robert Kelley, a nuclear weapons engineer with more than 35 years of experience at the U.S. Department of Energy, said it was possible for Ukraine in five years to create a primitive fission uranium bomb.
“It is a relatively simple thing to do in 21st century,” said he to the Kyiv Independent.
Kelley argued that it would be more difficult for Ukraine build a fission plutonium bomb and harder to conceal. He added that it would take between five and ten years to build a reactor.
Kelley said that a hydrogen bomb would be “incredibly complex” compared to a fission weapon. “There is no way (Ukraine would) be able create it,” Kelley added.
Kelley said that Ukraine could also create a crude nucleus device without the assistance of other countries. He added that for a more sophisticated nuclear weapon, Ukraine would need to purchase technology from abroad.
Both a Russian and a Ukrainian expert in nuclear technology confirmed to the Kyiv independent that Ukraine is capable producing a nuclear weapon, but added that it would take years. The Russian expert spoke under the condition of anonymity out of fear of reprisals. The Ukrainian expert had not been authorized to speak to the media about the issue.
Lavikainen stated that “Ukraine has the resources and know-how to become a nuclear weapon state if they made the political decision.” “The technology needed is not beyond the reach of many countries and certainly not Ukraine, as it was home to crucial elements of Soviet nuclear weapons when it was part of the USSR.
“Ukraine can develop both nuclear warheads as well as carrier vehicles, since it has the necessary military industry and uranium reserves, along with a nuclear energy sector,” Lavikainen added.
Nikolai Sokov was more cautious and said that Ukraine could “possibly” create a nuclear weapon. It will take “years, a lot more money, and probably external support at least for the equipment side.”
“Ukraine lacks the industrial capacity necessary to maintain and manufacture a nuclear arsenal. It does not possess fissile material, enrichment capability, plutonium, or any of the other elements needed to build a nuclear weapon,” he said.
Liviu Horovitz is a nuclear deterrence expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. He also said that Ukraine would face challenges if it decided to build a nuclear weapon.
“Ukraine has the scientific prerequisites to have a nuclear weapons programme,” but “acquiring fissile material is neither cheap nor quick nor very easy in secret,” he continued.
An expert in nuclear weapons who spoke under anonymity said the most primitive nuclear program based on uranium-based centrifuges would cost around $100,000,000. He added that a plutonium bomb programme would cost around $1 billion.
Russian airstrikes pose a threat to Ukrainian nucleonic facilities
A second challenge is that Russia could strike any Ukrainian nuclear weapons facilities. It has a vast arsenal, both of conventional missiles as well as those with nuclear warheads.
Lavikainen stated that it was difficult to imagine (Ukraine’s) ability to carry out the program as long as war continues.
“Russia would most likely prioritize strikes against the relevant facilities as quickly as it could identify those facilities. He added that sabotage and murder would likely be part of the campaign to disrupt nuclear programs.
Horovitz, citing Iran’s efforts in the past 30 years, said “it is rather dangerous to acquire nuclear weapons, when your adversary has both nuclear and conventional options to prevent such proliferation.”
Iran has been working on developing nuclear weapons since 1950, but has yet to produce an atomic weapon.
Five Iranian nuclear scientists died between 2010 and 2020. Explosions at Iranian nuclear sites occurred in 2020. Iran blamed Israel for the deaths and explosions, but Israel has neither denied nor confirmed their involvement.
In 1981, Israel destroyed a nuclear reactor that was not finished by Saddam Hussein.
Allies could be alienated by the building of nuclear bombs
The political implications of an Ukrainian nuclear program are the main obstacle.
Analysts say that Ukraine is a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and its withdrawal would result in a backlash both from the U.S. as well as Ukraine’s European Allies.
Lavikainen stated, “The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is the cornerstone of nuclear policy for the U.S. as well as every other partner of Ukraine.”
“Ukraine’s partners would likely pressure it to end the program once discovered,” he said. “They would have great leverage because Ukraine’s defensive efforts depend on foreign military assistance,” he added.
Lynn Rusten, vice-president of the U.S. based Nuclear Threat Initiative Global Nuclear Policy Program, agrees with this assessment.
“If Ukraine pursued nuclear weapons, it would result in a net loss of security for Ukraine,” she said.
“The United States and the West, as well as the majority of international community, would oppose Ukraine – or any other non nuclear weapon state – seeking nuclear weapons. We would respond by isolating Ukraine economically and diplomatically.”
Analysts say that Western partners will likely interpret a Ukrainian nuke program as a major escalation in the war.
Mathers said that “Ukraine supporters in the West will be dismayed by this step, as it would lead to more instability and increase the risk of the war escalating to even greater levels, whether inside Ukraine or including NATO member countries.”
It would most likely create (or worsen) tensions between Kyiv, and its allies. The process of developing nuclear arms will make Ukraine less secure in the near future unless Ukraine is able to acquire its nuclear weapons immediately and present the world with a fait accompli.
It is not clear how the Western partners will react and whether they will halt military assistance and impose sanctions against Kyiv.
Mathiesen said he doubted Western allies would cease military aid to Ukraine if the country began developing nuclear weapons, because it would be against public opinion.
“I think it would be difficult for them not to continue their assistance,” he said.
Oleg Sukhov works as a reporter for the Kyiv Independent. He was a former Moscow Times editor and reporter. He holds a master’s in history from Moscow State University. He moved to Ukraine due to the crackdown against independent media in Russia in 2014. He covered war, corruption reforms, and law enforcement for The Kyiv Post.
Read More @ kyivindependent.com