Former Ukraine’s Security Service officer, who was a former officer of the Security Service, questions the sustainability of this operation.
Ivan Stupak, a former officer of the Ukraine’s Security Service, told Suspilne that the Kursk operation was successful up until early September, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to expand their controlled territory. But now they are “stuck”, he said.
Ukraine’s operation, launched in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on August 6, 2024 aimed to counter Russian aggressiveness and disrupt planned offensives. Ukrainian forces advanced 35 kilometers into Russian territories, capturing hundreds soldiers and inflicting 20,000 casualties reportedly on Russian forces. The operation was in response to intelligence that suggested Russia planned to create “buffer zones” in northern Ukraine. The Ukrainian advance, despite its initial successes, has recently stalled because of Russian reinforcements and strengthened defenses in the region.
“The operation was successful when we expanded the area of influence in this region. It covered 900 square kilometres at its peak. According to DeepState analysts it is 611 square kilometers as of now. However, we do not know the exact area. We’ve lost 30% of the land we used to control there. “The cost of this operation is extremely high,” Stupak said.
He stressed that Ukraine has suffered losses in personnel as well as equipment.
“Western analysts estimate – and these figures can certainly be questioned – that during the three months of operation, Ukraine lost approximately 300 pieces of equipment, including pickups and buggies as well as heavy equipment and more. “That’s about 100 units per month,” Stupak said.
He believes that the initial phase was very successful as it disrupted Kremlin plans, expanded Ukraine’s exchange pool and demonstrated to the rest of the world the weakness in Russia’s defence.
“However, we are stuck now, and I do not see a military solution for this operation moving forward. Timing is key. “Our troops were at their best when they entered and we maximized our possible advantages,” says the analyst.
He said that while Ukraine still holds Kursk Oblast it is losing eastern cities such as Pokrovsk which had a population of 100,000 before the war. Comparatively, Sudzha had a population of 5,000 before the war in Kursk.
According to Stupak’s report, Ukrainian forces in south and east Ukraine are reporting shortages of heavy equipment and ammunition, as the top priority for Ukrainian command is Kursk and equipment and weapons directed there.
According to him, it is now more appropriate for the Ukrainian Forces to withdraw from Kursk Oblast.
Read More @ euromaidanpress.com