The 490 square kilometers occupied by Russian troops in October 2024 represent the largest gain since onset of counteroffensive. However, experts stress that assessing the military success requires a closer look at resource management and troop readiness as well as strategic use of human resources.
According to DeepState, in October 2024, Russian invaders took over 490 square kilometers (about 450 square miles) of Ukrainian territory, the largest territorial gain ever since the start of Russia‘s offensive, which has been ongoing from October of the previous calendar year.
As of November 2024 the situation on the Ukrainian frontlines remains intense, with ongoing combat in multiple fronts. This is especially true in the Kurakhove-Lyman area. Ukrainian forces are under increased Russian artillery bombardment, particularly in the Sumy oblast and Kharkiv, while also repelling multiple assaults in Kharkiv, including near Vovchansk. The Russians have lost more than 1,300 soldiers on a single day and the total casualties since the offensive began exceed 700,000. Despite the losses, Russia was able to gain territory in eastern Ukraine.
DeepState experts point out that social media is a place where the extent of territorial losses suffered by Ukraine’s Defense Forces is widely discussed. Military analysts, however, say that territory should not be the only measure of success.
They said: “After all, the people are the ones who fight, and they are the ones who guarantee the army’s ability to resist and its stability.”
They also claim that you can direct the efforts from several brigades towards a single settlement, and with maximum losses, maintain a minimal area. This strategy is not likely to be successful.
The counteroffensive in 2023, specifically, demonstrated that the effectiveness of a military-industrial complex depends on the capabilities and training level of the mobilized troops.
The bloody lesson of 2023’s counteroffensive taught that the key indicators were the capabilities of the military industrial complex, the level training of the mobilized, mechanization and the ability to conduct long-range attacks, but most importantly the rational use of human capacity. Experts believe that the latter is our weakest point.
The Russian forces also learn from their mistakes. Their units undergo additional training and rotations are conducted regularly.
“Meat-grinder units used to be the hallmark of their army. But now, more often than not, their regiments, brigades, and training their personnel spend additional weeks or months. DeepState writes that the large number of personnel allows regular rotations every two or three months.
While Ukrainian brigades that have been fighting since February 2022 struggle to maintain such frequent rotations. The newly formed brigades of the 150th have not yet reached a level comparable to those who fought in 2023. This raises concerns about future units.
Analysts note that “it is frightening to imagine the fate of the 16th brigade,” which is already known by the public.
They also add that, while the area of territory lost is important, it’s only one of many criteria used to assess the army’s readiness for combat. If, in October 2022 the Russians were able to advance with four companies toward Novomykhailivka now, this is a much harder task for them.
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