Donald Trump’s reelection as US President is a devastating blow to Europe, who is woefully underprepared.
Trump’s protectionist promises threaten the European Union’s export-led economies. His transactional approach to NATO also puts Europe’s already fragile security at risk. Ukraine could be sacrificed soon to Russia. Trump’s encouragement of nationalists such as Hungarian PM Viktor Orban may further undermine the unity of the EU.
The Europeans who are shocked by Trump’s threats will be tempted into a defensive posture and hope he does not follow through on his most extreme ones: slapping tariffs on European exports and abandoning Ukraine.
This would be a catastrophic error. The Europeans need to swallow their pride and work hard to win Trump’s approval.
He will often take aggressive positions in negotiations, with the goal of clinching a deal he can proclaim as a win. He loves to be admired and respected, and he detests appearing weak. The European strategy should take advantage of these personality traits.
Three points stand out.
1. Personal diplomacy is paramount
The worst way to engage Trump is to rely solely on bureaucratic, rules-driven, policy-oriented EU institutions. Instead, European leaders should establish positive personal relationships with him, just as Japanese Prime minister Abe Shinzo did after Trump won the 2016 Presidential election.
Giorgia Melons, the right-wing nationalist Italian prime minister, is the ideal person to do this. She shares Trump’s anti-illegal immigration stance and his social conservatism. Elon Musk has lauded her as a star among conservatives in the United States. He has also aligned himself with Trump.
Meloni, as Prime Minister, has acted pragmatically, advancing Italian interest through cooperation within EU circles, rather than by opposing them. She has also shown her opposition to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and supported Ukraine. She is vocal about defending Italian exports, as her party enjoys strong support from small businesses.
Meloni should focus on building a relationship with Trump and highlighting the common ground that they share. (The fact that Meloni is a beautiful blonde woman will do her no harm.
2. The EU should give Trump immediate wins on trade and defence
Meloni is expected to bring gifts, including a plan for boosting US exports to Europe. Trump believes that the EU’s large surplus in trade with the US is unfair. His solution is to impose tariffs of up to 20% or 10% on EU exports.
The US is the EU’s largest export market. Goods exports to America will reach EUR500 billion ($535billion) in 2023 – one-fifth the total of the EU. This makes the European economy vulnerable to US protectionionism. Since US goods exports to Europe are only EUR350bn, and Trump doesn’t have to worry about reelection, EU retaliation will be unlikely to be effective.
The other major policy victory that Europeans can give to Trump is the commitment of European NATO members to increase defense spending from 2.5% to 3% of GDP by next year and by the end Trump’s four-year tenure.
In any case, it is desirable to do so. Europe is vulnerable because it can’t defend itself. This is why many countries, including Poland, have increased their defense spending in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine.
A boost in European defense spending could be a hedge to Trump’s suggestions that he won’t help defend European countries who don’t spend enough money on defense or that he’ll withdraw the US from NATO. A major move by European countries could prevent such a catastrophe.
Meloni, who spends so little on defense in Italy, may not be the best person to convey such a message. Mark Rutte is a better spokesperson for this issue. He maintained good relations with Trump when he was the center-right Prime Minister of the Netherlands during Rutte’s first term.
3. The Europeans must appeal Trump’s vanity in order to save Ukraine
The administration of President Joe Biden and its European allies has sought to accelerate aid to Ukraine in order to reduce the threat of a Trump win. However, European countries should continue to support Ukraine regardless. Ukraine’s faltering military effort will suffer without US assistance.
The re-election of Trump will have sounded alarms in Ukraine. He has spoken of cutting off US assistance and ending the conflict within 24 hours. This implies that he will force Ukraine abandon the territory it has lost and remain vulnerable for future Russian aggression.
Trump is obsessed with appearing strong, especially in the eyes other strongmen like Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Meloni could argue that abandoning Ukraine makes him look weak. It would be better for him to stand up to Putin and bring the war to an end in a fairer way, thus solidifying his status as the “dealmaker-in-chief.”
Mike Pompeo, Trump’s former secretary of State, and possibly his new defense secretary who also advocates a hard line in support of Ukraine, could be useful allies.
It is easy to see why this strategy could fail. Trump is unpredictable, Meloni may change her tune about the EU and Ukraine once he becomes president, and European governments tend to be divided and timid. The EU institutions are weak, but they’re also jealous of the privileges they have in negotiations. Orban could urge Trump to pursue a new strategy.
Europe must try, even though the alternatives are frightening.
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