On Nov. 6, 2024, masks of Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. president-elect Donald Trump were on sale at a souvenir booth in central Saint Petersburg. (Olga Maltseva / AFP via Getty Images)
On Nov. 5, nothing changed, but everything changed. As Americans cast their ballots in what was called by many the most important election of our times, Nov. 5, the death and destruction Russia brought to Ukraine was a horrifically marked day.
The criminal war of aggression by Moscow, combined with the nuclear blackmail, has been a defining event for the past century, far more significant than any political shifts in the United States. It has already reshaped Europe and the world in ways that we cannot even imagine.
The “long peace” era, marked by unprecedented prosperity, stability and security, is over. This is due to Russia’s revanchism and countless war crimes as well as its alliances with North Korea and Iran. But it’s also because the Free World has allowed it to continue unchecked.
As Americans rushed to vote on November 5, Russia bombed a peaceful city in Ukraine. Six people were killed, including a son, a brother, a wife and a granddaughter. 23 more people were injured. Their “crime?” Their “crime”?
Since Russia violated Ukraine’s sovereignty for the first time, it has been more than a decade. The Free World has eroded global security in a steady, and perhaps irreversible, manner due to its broken promises and inadequate response. We look away and hope for the best.
Half-measures and hope are not strategies, and they will cost us more than we could ever imagine.
Elections are held in America every four years. But the true course of the century – for the U.S. as well as for humanity – depends on what Neville Chamberlain dismissed once as “a quarrel between people in a distant country, of whom we know absolutely nothing.”
This is not alarmism. Look at the history: in 1999, Russia invaded Chechnya, in 2008, Georgia, and in 2014, Crimea. We pretended to believe Vladimir Putin when Russian forces invaded Crimea. Indecision and complacency fueled the aggression by tyrants.
We had no reason to be surprised when Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine’s border in mass on February 24, 2022. We should have done more in order to prevent this war, and we had no right to think that it didn’t affect us. It is reckless to pretend otherwise. Ukraine is paying a heavy price for its bravery today, and we cannot take it for granted. If the Free World continues on this path, then we will be forced to make sacrifices for freedom.
Russia’s aggressive policy reflects a pattern that Western capitals failed to confront in the last 20 years. In 2021, the U.S. economy and that of its European allies will account for half of global GDP; Russia will only make up 2%. Russian military spending was $66bn — not much when compared with NATO’s $1.2trillion.
Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s foreign minister, puts it bluntly. “Putin spends $140 billion and we struggle to make promises of fifty. We are essentially sending him the message that ‘We won’t stop you’, so he will not stop. If we allotted $800 billion he would have to rethink. Yes, we can afford it. Yes, it would be cheaper to let him continue.”
While $800 billion sounds staggering, it is nothing compared to complacency. If the Free World does not challenge aggression, we will enter into a new age of insecurity, where wars of aggression become the norm and nuclear blackmail is no longer a taboo.
The current U.S. Defense spending, which is around $1 trillion per year, is only 3.5% of the GDP. This is a fraction of the Cold War budgets, which hovered at 10% of GDP over a period of two decades. Over the same time period, tripling U.S. defense spending would cost $40 trillion. This is more than the $35 trillion national debt.
Restraint when faced with blatant aggression does not represent wisdom. It is a sign of weakness. The Kremlin takes our hesitations as permission. The longer we hesitate, the more dangerous things become.
Americans, irrespective of their political views, have a shared interest in stopping this cycle. This is not a partisan matter — it’s about standing for a world in which aggressors will face consequences. The Free World has to stand up — not only for Ukraine, but also for its own future.
Editor’s note: The opinions expressed by the authors in the op/ed section do not necessarily reflect those of the Kyiv Independent.
Andrew Chakhoyan, an academic director at University of Amsterdam teaches a multilateralism course. Chakhoyan served in the U.S. Government, managing international development at the Millennium Challenge Corporation and overseeing regional government matters covering Ukraine and Russia for the World Economic Forum.
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