This bulletin provides an in-depth analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on the Black Sea region, including dynamics of virus spread, government responses, economic performance, and future projections.
**Key Findings:**
1. **Virus Spread:** The pandemic has affected all countries in the Black Sea region, with Georgia experiencing a sharp decline in GDP (6.1 percentage points) while Turkey was the only country to record positive growth (1.8 percentage points).
2. **Economic Performance:** In 2020, every country in the region experienced an unprecedented decline in terms of economic growth. However, according to World Bank forecasts, most countries are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2021.
3. **Government Debt:** The size of government debt measured as a percentage of GDP significantly increased in all Black Sea region countries. Georgia’s debt rose by 20.2 percentage points, while Turkey’s debt increased by 4.2 percentage points.
4. **Current Account Balance:** Russia is expected to recover its pre-pandemic level of current account surplus due to increasing oil prices and exports. Ukraine’s current account balance will drop back into deficit once oil prices stabilize.
5. **Inflation:** All countries in the region are expected to surpass their inflation targets, driven by recovery in economic activity and commodity price increases.
**Conclusion:**
The recovery of the Black Sea region from the COVID-19 pandemic is not assured due to various challenges such as new outbreaks, vaccination difficulties, travel restrictions, rising debt levels, and inflationary pressures. The path to recovery in 2021 will likely be long and divergent.