**Trump’s Entry into White House Could Freeze Ukraine War**
The US presidential election has sparked concerns about a potential shift in the country’s approach to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Donald Trump’s promise to end the war within 24 hours has raised fears that he might push Ukraine towards painful territorial concessions.
If Trump achieves his goal, it could lead to a “freezing” of the war, with negotiations taking place without significant changes on the battlefield. However, this would likely require Moscow to recapture territory from Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region and maintain control over other areas.
**Russia’s Goals**
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to use any potential talks to dictate his terms, including an end to Western sanctions, Ukrainian neutrality, and recognition of Russian-occupied territories. This could mean a pro-Russian government in Kyiv and an end to Ukraine’s bid for membership in the EU and NATO.
Putin may also try to open a new axis of advance in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, using territory gained to strengthen Moscow’s negotiation position. Ukrainian military officials have warned that Russian assaults in this region could begin at any time.
**Biden’s Options**
As President Joe Biden enters his lame-duck period, he has several options to help Ukraine before leaving office. These include spending down funds committed to Ukraine and ensuring the delivery of outstanding military aid. The Pentagon has confirmed its commitment to sending $6 billion in aid before Trump is inaugurated on January 20.
There are also discussions within the administration about approving the use of long-range weapons to strike deep inside Russia, a move that could have an impact on Russia’s offensive in Kursk and potentially preemptively target North Korean troops stationed there.
**What Can Biden Do?**
President Biden has several options open to him, despite entering a traditionally less influential period. He needs to ensure that funds committed to Ukraine are spent before the new Congress takes power in early January. The US also needs to keep its commitments to Kyiv and maintain pressure on Russia through diplomatic and military means.
**Simulated Attacks**
Away from the front lines, Ukraine has braced for weeks for mass missile attacks targeting energy infrastructure as winter sets in. Russia has launched simulated attacks, prompting air raid alerts across the country. This is likely an attempt by Putin to demoralize the population and create political turmoil in Kyiv.
In summary, Trump’s entry into the White House could lead to a freeze on the Ukraine war, with negotiations potentially taking place without significant changes on the battlefield. Putin’s goals include ending Western sanctions, Ukrainian neutrality, and recognition of Russian-occupied territories. Biden has several options open to him, including spending down funds committed to Ukraine and maintaining pressure on Russia through diplomatic and military means.