**Russia Prepares for ATACMS Strikes, but Expectations Should be Tempered**
Russia has been fortifying its airbases in anticipation of Ukrainian strikes using American-made ATACMS missiles. However, the impact of these strikes is likely to be limited due to various constraints.
According to Frontelligence Insight, a Russian analysis firm, satellite imagery shows that the Kursk military airbase has been reinforced with new aircraft revetments and concrete blocks since early October. This suggests that Russia was preparing for potential strikes even before the US lifted restrictions on Ukraine’s use of ATACMS.
The new revetments offer limited protection against missile or drone strikes, primarily against shrapnel and shockwaves. It is unclear whether Russia plans to add roof coverage or focus solely on strengthening the walls.
**Limited Missiles and Heavy Air Defenses**
Ukraine’s use of ATACMS may be limited by the number of missiles available and the effectiveness of Russian air defenses. With only a few successful strikes possible, Ukraine must carefully select its targets and timing.
Additionally, Russia has moved many key air assets beyond ATACMS range, leaving mainly helicopters and close-support jets at the Kursk airfield within striking distance. This reduces the number of high-value targets available for Ukraine to hit.
**Geographic Constraints**
Early reports suggest that Ukraine’s use of ATACMS may be limited to specific geographic areas, such as the Kursk Oblast. This nuance could significantly influence the outcomes of their use.
Russia has a vast network of makeshift ammo depots, command posts, and other tactical sites in the Kursk oblast. However, their sheer number far outstrips the limited missiles available to Ukraine.
**ATACMS Variants and Limitations**
The ATACMS variants differ in range and warhead type, with some having unitary warheads while others have submunitions. Not all can reach 300 kilometers or target fortified structures, limiting the options further.
There are also serious doubts over whether Ukraine will be allowed to target Russian oil refineries or energy infrastructure, as the US has opposed similar operations before.
**Incremental Gains**
While ATACMS will aid Ukraine on the battlefield, expectations should be tempered. Their use is unlikely to dramatically impact Russian forces in Kursk, delivering incremental tactical gains rather than immediate and decisive outcomes.
The goal is not to discourage public sentiment but to set realistic expectations, avoiding future speculation about why ATACMS didn’t shift the war’s tide or destroy the Russo-Korean forces in Kursk Oblast.
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