**Russia Advances in Ukraine, Boosting Negotiating Position**
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has taken a significant turn in favor of the Russian military. Data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that Russia has gained nearly six times as much territory in 2024 as it did in 2023.
According to ISW figures, Russia has taken control of around 2,700 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory this year, compared to just 465 square kilometers in 2023. This represents a significant acceleration of Russian gains along the front line.
**Key Hubs Under Threat**
Russia’s advances have been particularly notable in the eastern Donbas region, where key logistical hubs are under threat. The city of Kupiansk, which was liberated by Ukrainian forces in 2022, is now at risk of being retaken by Russia. Russian forces have also made gains in Kurakhove, a stepping stone to the important hub of Pokrovsk.
Experts warn that if Russia continues to advance at pace, the Ukrainian front line may “actually collapse.” Dr Marina Miron, a defense researcher at Kings College London, notes that Ukraine’s defensive line has become increasingly stretched.
**Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion Backfires**
In August, Ukraine launched an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, hoping to draw Russian forces away from the Donbas and gain some political leverage. However, this move appears to have backfired, with Russia now countering-attacking and regaining territory.
Verified videos show fierce fighting taking place in the region, with Ukraine suffering significant losses. Dr Miron describes the Kursk incursion as a “strategic catastrophe” for Ukraine, as it has tied down Ukrainian units and failed to achieve its intended goals.
**Russian Negotiating Position Strengthened**
The Russian advances have strengthened Russia’s negotiating position ahead of potential peace talks. US President-elect Trump has claimed he can end the war within 24 hours, without specifying how. However, experts warn that Russia now holds a stronger hand in any negotiations, with control over significant territory.
Dr Miron notes that from a Russian perspective, “they have much better cards than the Ukrainians.” This development is likely to make it more difficult for Ukraine to secure favorable terms in any future peace agreement.