The article discusses the potential implications of the fall of Aleppo in Syria on Russia’s influence in the Middle East and its relations with Ukraine. Experts interviewed by the Kyiv Independent suggest that while Russia will likely try to preserve Bashar al-Assad’s regime, it may face challenges in doing so due to economic and political constraints.
The article highlights several points:
1. The fall of Aleppo is a significant blow to Assad’s regime and could undermine Russian influence in Syria.
2. Russia’s involvement in Ukraine has strained its economy, making it harder for the country to provide full-scale support to Assad.
3. Iran also faces challenges in supporting Assad due to international sanctions and economic constraints.
4. Russia may have to limit itself to airstrikes rather than deploying ground troops to support Assad.
5. If Assad falls, it could undermine Russian and Iranian influence in Syria and the broader Middle East, damaging their geopolitical position.
Experts quoted in the article include:
1. Lucas: Fall of Aleppo is a huge blow to Russia and Assad, and could help Ukraine by distracting Putin.
2. Quilliam: Russia’s economy is strained due to its war with Ukraine, making it harder for them to support Assad.
3. Bruchmann: Russia will not be able to secure the Syrian regime on their own, and Iran and its proxies will have to take over this role.
4. Sahlin: Russia will likely limit itself to airstrikes in helping Assad’s regime, and will also try to avoid antagonizing US President-elect Donald Trump.
5. Lund: While Russia will do its best to shore up Assad’s defenses, it may not be able to spare a lot of resources, and the Syrian war is not on the same scale as Ukraine.
Overall, the article suggests that while Russia will likely try to preserve Assad’s regime, it faces significant challenges in doing so due to economic and political constraints.