This interview with a Chatham House fellow discusses the current situation in Ukraine and the concerns about the US administration’s support for the country. Here are some key points from the conversation:
* The worst-case scenario is that the US might not provide sufficient support to Ukraine, leading to a ceasefire or even a Russian takeover.
* Trump’s unpredictability makes it difficult to know what he will do, but there is optimism among some people that he might surprise everyone and take an action in Ukraine’s favor.
* The previous administration’s approach has been criticized for bleeding Russia slowly while weakening Ukraine, which has led to frustration and disillusionment among Ukrainian supporters.
* The US is the biggest supporter of Ukraine, but its actions have caused soul-searching about the nature of that support.
* There are no specific steps that Ukraine can take to improve the situation, as it has already been working hard to get the message across.
* European governments are more concerned with spending on defense than with supporting Ukraine or building up their own defenses.
* The decisions made by Western countries have led to a potentially catastrophic situation in Ukraine and make it difficult to rescue.
* The legacy of decades-old decisions that assumed war would never affect Europe has left Russia with many soft targets, making it easier for them to undermine NATO if they choose to do so.
The conversation is pessimistic about the current situation and the potential consequences for Ukraine.