**Russian Drone Strikes on Ukraine Surge to Record Levels**
Russia has launched a record number of Shahed-type kamikaze drones at Ukraine in November, with over 2,500 drones deployed. This is the third month in a row that drone attacks have reached high levels.
The Kremlin has announced plans to increase drone production by almost ten times this year, from around 140,000 drones in 2023 to 1.4 million. Ukrainian air defenses, bolstered by Western-supplied systems like Patriot and NASAMS, have become effective against Russian mass missile attacks. However, these systems are expensive, making it inefficient to use them against cheap drones.
**Ukraine Adapts to Drone Attacks**
To combat drone attacks, Ukraine has developed mobile fire groups and a network of sensors to detect and track drones. The country also uses electronic warfare techniques like GPS spoofing to confuse and steer Russian drones in the wrong direction.
According to Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, only around 5% of Russian drones launched at Ukraine actually make it through air defenses. However, Russia is adapting by manufacturing its own Shahed-type drones and developing new variations.
**New Drone Variations**
Russia has been producing decoy drones to overload Ukraine’s air defense system. These drones are made from cheap materials like plywood and foam and can be launched alongside deadly counterparts to distract Ukrainian air defenses.
Some Russian drones now carry thermobaric warheads, which create intense pressure and heat that can cause devastating injuries. Other drones have shrapnel munitions, which blast out ball bearings from the impact area. These weapons are designed to kill people, not destroy structures.
**Limiting Factor: Drone Production**
The main limiting factor in Russian drone attacks is how many drones it can produce. Ukraine’s military intelligence has reported that Russia is using cheap decoy drones with foreign components to overload air defenses.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has called for tougher sanctions against providers of components used in Russian drones, as these are essential for enabling terror. By managing to circumvent current sanctions, Russia will be able to keep a steady supply of components and maintain drone attacks at high levels.
**What’s Next?**
It is too early to tell if the increase in drone numbers is a long-term trend or just a short-term escalation ahead of Donald Trump entering the White House. Military analysts say it’s possible that Russia is deploying stockpiles, laying the ground for negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.