**Russia‘s Losses May Outpace Enlistment Rates**
A recent analysis by the Meduza news outlet suggests that Russia’s recruitment rate may have dropped in the third quarter of 2024. According to their estimates, the Russian military signed between 500 and 600 new contracts per day, which is less than or barely enough to cover the country’s irreversible battlefield losses.
**Battlefield Losses**
Meduza estimates that Russia is suffering around 600-750 casualties per day, including 200-250 fatalities. This is a high number, especially considering the war in Ukraine has been going on since February 2022. The figures could not be verified as Russia does not disclose its casualty rates.
**Impact of Losses**
If accurate, these figures indicate a tipping point in Moscow’s ability to compensate for casualties in its full-scale war in Ukraine. Despite being Russia’s deadliest conflict since World War II, observers believed the country could substitute losses through volunteers and limited “covert” mobilization. However, it seems that this may no longer be possible.
**Sign-on Bonuses**
Russian President Vladimir Putin hiked sign-on bonuses earlier this year to attract more recruits for the war. The lump-sum payment went from 195,000 rubles (now $1,900) to 400,000 rubles (now $3,900) in August. This may have contributed to a decrease in recruitment rates, as seen in the third quarter.
**International Response**
The international community is taking note of Russia’s struggles and increasing losses. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha strongly opposed any agreements resembling past Yalta or Minsk deals that could legitimize Russian aggression. The world faces the dawn of a “third nuclear age,” according to Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, head of the U.K.’s armed forces.
**Ukraine’s Air Force**
Ukrainian Air Force intercepted 30 of 44 Russian drones launched overnight, and Russia fired two Iskander-M ballistic missiles. This is just one example of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
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