**Russia‘s Alliance with China: A Ticking Time Bomb**
The recent BRICS+ summit in Kazan, Russia has sparked hopes among some observers that the country is leading an anti–Western world order alongside China. However, this alliance may be more of a marriage of convenience than a genuine strategic partnership.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have met over 40 times since 2012, with Xi meeting Putin more often than any other world leader. This frequent interaction has led to joint military exercises, technology transfers, and economic cooperation. However, beneath the surface of unity lies a complex web of historical grievances and competing interests that could fracture the relationship once Putin and Xi leave the stage.
**Historical Grievances**
Tensions between Russia and China date back to the 19th century when Beijing was forced to cede vast territories to Tsarist Russia. These agreements, seen as unequal by Beijing, remain a sore spot for Chinese leaders who view them as a legacy of exploitation during China’s period of weakness. The strategic significance of these territories cannot be overstated, with Russia’s Pacific port and military bases on the Sea of Okhotsk being crucial assets.
**China’s Territorial Reclamation Strategy**
China has a well-documented strategy for reclaiming lost territories. Beijing incorporates economic footholds, builds military infrastructure, and steadily asserts dominance over contested areas. This method is evident in its actions in the South China Sea, where it established economic outposts and constructed military installations despite international objections.
Similarly, Beijing has pursued territorial claims against India in the Himalayas, clashing with Indian forces in 2020 and 2021. In Vietnam, China’s 1979 invasion and subsequent skirmishes over disputed territory demonstrate its readiness to use force to assert historic claims.
**A Warning from History**
The 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict offers a stark warning of how quickly territorial disputes can escalate. Fighting at Zhenbao (Damansky) Island on the Ussuri River led to hundreds of casualties and reportedly brought both nations to the brink of nuclear war.
**Russia’s Demographic Vulnerabilities**
Russia’s demographic vulnerabilities, combined with China’s historic territorial claims, could eventually turn their partnership into a liability. The Donald Trump administration warned Moscow repeatedly about these risks, advising that every intelligence assessment, military exercise, and economic agreement should be viewed through the lens of China’s demonstrated pattern of territorial reclamation.
**Conclusion**
The alliance between Russia and China may be more of a marriage of convenience than a genuine strategic partnership. As Putin and Xi leave the stage, Russia may be in for a rude awakening when it realizes that its partnership with China is not as strong as it seemed. The historical grievances and competing interests between the two nations could fracture their relationship, leaving Russia vulnerable to Chinese territorial reclamation strategies.
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