**Russia’s Military Presence in Syria in Jeopardy**
The Kremlin has confirmed that Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has fled to Moscow after rebel forces took the capital city of Damascus. This development is not a surprise, given Russia’s heavy investment in propping up Assad’s regime with military support since 2015.
Russia had established itself as a major player in Syria, with two permanent bases and thousands of troops on the ground. However, its military was stretched thin by its three-year invasion of Ukraine, leaving it unable to protect Assad this time around.
**Russian Assets at Risk**
The fall of Assad’s regime puts Russia’s international prestige at risk, and analysts are speculating about a potential collapse in Russia’s ability to continue operations across Africa. Russian intelligence has reported that some military equipment is being pulled out of Syria, including the only air base outside the former Soviet Union and its only warm-water port.
**Concerns About African Operations**
Experts warn that a pullout from Syria could have significant implications for Russia’s operations in Africa. Marat Gabidullin, a Kremlin-backed Wagner mercenary, noted that Hmeimim Air Base was the “hub” of Russia’s operations across Africa and the Middle East. He expressed concern about the difficulties of dealing with warlords and strongmen in regions like Libya.
**Russian Troops Remain in Syria**
Despite reports of equipment being pulled out, Russian troops remain at their bases in Syria. Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House, observed that “they’re still there, they’re still present” and noted that a mass evacuation would be obvious.
**Uncertainty Ahead**
The situation is uncertain, with Russia weighing its options between political navigation or a mass evacuation of troops and equipment. The implications for Ukraine are also unclear, but Ukrainian intelligence is delighted by Russia’s failure in Syria.