The article discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine and the possible scenarios for its end. The author highlights the importance of a strong European response to prevent a disaster in Ukraine.
Key points:
* German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made his first phone call to Putin since late November, which was criticized by Ukrainian supporters.
* Analysts suggest that Biden and Scholz’s hesitation has led to their Central Eastern European allies self-organizing and exploring ways to do more to support Ukraine.
* A possible air defense coalition between NATO member states could be a way to support Ukraine while projecting strength to Russia without firing a single shot at Russian soldiers or pilots.
* The article identifies four key inflection points that will determine the outcome of the war:
1. The battlefield: whether Ukraine can stabilize its defense and bring Russia’s offensive surge to culmination.
2. Trump’s response: how he will handle the situation and whether he will be tough on Putin for a quick peace.
3. Putin’s calculation: whether he is interested in stopping on the battlefield, and how he responds to Trump’s demands.
4. Europe’s response: whether they will step up to do whatever is required to avoid Scenario 3 and make a decisive long-term commitment to turn a Scenario 2 ceasefire into a robust peace.
The article concludes that NATO membership should still be the final goal for Ukraine, and in the meantime, the West must do everything to project peace through strength. The real way to fundamentally change Putin’s calculus is to take Ukraine off the table and say there’s really no outcome of this war where Ukraine doesn’t end up under the protection of Article 5.
Overall, the article emphasizes the importance of a strong European response and NATO involvement in resolving the conflict.