**Syrian President’s Regime Collapses, Showing Limits of Russian Air Power**
For a decade, Bashar al–Assad was in power in Damascus. But on December 7, his regime suddenly collapsed. This shows that airpower can achieve tactical victories but not long-term strategic ones.
**A Decade-Long War**
Since the Arab uprisings in 2011, Syria has been at war. The Syrian government had a Soviet/Russian-provided military arsenal, designed to keep Israel under control. But by 2015, the state was weak and unable to break a stalemate. The north-south axis from Damascus along its coastal spine was secured, while Kurds controlled their territory.
**Russian Intervention**
In May 2015, Secretary of State John Kerry visited Russia to restart negotiations. Instead of a negotiated settlement, Russia intervened in the fall of 2015, ensuring that al-Assad would not negotiate from a position of weakness. The Russian air force consisted of just 28 aircraft and 20 helicopters.
**Russia’s Goals**
The Russian intervention was not about supporting al-Assad but about dictating the outcome of a negotiated endgame. They wanted to ensure their terms were met, including al-Assad stepping down on Russia’s terms. Russia also used Syria as a training ground for its military, testing new aircraft and missile systems.
**Lessons from Syria**
The sudden collapse of Assad’s regime highlights two key lessons:
1. **Sanctions are Powerful**: Al-Assad lost because he couldn’t survive sanctions. This offers hope to Ukraine, which has been under Russian pressure.
2. **Airpower Can’t Win Wars**: Russia’s bombing campaign didn’t break the people’s resistance. It shows that airpower can achieve tactical victories but not long-term strategic ones.
**A Lesson for Ukraine**
The author suggests that these lessons are relevant to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Just like Assad, Putin may be overestimating the impact of air power on Ukrainian morale. The Syrian experience shows that people are more resilient than expected and that bombing won’t break their spirit.
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