**IMF Predicts Two Scenarios for Ukraine’s Economy**
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released updated projections for Ukraine’s economy. The forecasts outline two possible scenarios regarding Russia’s ongoing war.
**Scenario 1: War Ends in Late 2025**
In the first scenario, the IMF assumes that the war will end by late 2025. Under this assumption, Ukraine’s GDP is expected to grow by 4% in 2024 and 2.5-3.5% in 2025. Inflation is projected to rise to 10% due to factors like rising food prices and currency depreciation.
**Scenario 2: War Continues Until Mid-2026**
The second scenario predicts that the war will continue until mid-2026, causing deeper economic shocks. This would lead to slower GDP recovery, higher inflation, and fiscal deficits exceeding 20%. The external financing gap is estimated at $177.2 billion, compared to $148 billion in the first scenario.
**IMF Review**
The IMF has completed its sixth review of Ukraine’s Extended Fund Facility, approving an additional $1.1 billion tranche. The program will provide Kyiv with $15.6 billion in budget support over four years.
**Ukraine-Russia Conflict Updates**
Meanwhile, reports continue to emerge about the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
* Drone footage has captured Russian troops shooting surrendered Ukrainian soldiers.
* Ukraine’s Air Force reported shooting down 52 attack drones, including the Shahed type.
* The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported over 1,800 casualties suffered by Russian forces just over the past day.
* The total number of deaths confirmed over the past 12 months has reached over 20,000.
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