This article from KI Insights, a strategic intelligence unit backed by the Kyiv Independent, provides an in-depth analysis of the current situation and potential developments for Ukraine in 2025. Here are the key points:
**Ukraine’s resilience**: Despite facing significant challenges, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience in withstanding Russian aggression, even relying solely on its own resources.
**Changing dynamics**: As the war drags on, the level of support required to maintain a strong Ukrainian defense is increasing, and may exceed what Western allies are willing or able to provide.
**Alternative options**: Deploying European boots on the ground could be an alternative option, but it’s currently considered politically unpalatable. This might change in 2025, depending on election outcomes and public opinion.
**Ukraine’s ability to escalate**: Ukraine can escalate its actions in asymmetric ways, such as attacking civilian infrastructure in Russia or supporting Islamic movements in Africa and the Middle East, which will make Western policy-makers uncomfortable and less likely to drop support.
**The Battle of Pokrovsk**: The outcome of this battle will be a litmus test for Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russian aggression. If Ukraine holds out until summer, it could demonstrate its capacity to resist until more favorable terms are met.
**Electoral challenges**: Western allies face elections in 2025, which may impact their willingness and ability to continue supporting Ukraine.
**Hybrid war**: Russia will likely engage in hybrid operations, such as influencing public opinion, manipulating social media, and interfering with elections, to erode support for Ukraine among its allies.
**Russia’s economy**: Russia is facing economic challenges, including record-high interest rates and labor shortages, which may lead to shortages of munitions and manpower. This could eventually collapse the Russian military effort.
**Western response**: The article concludes that it’s uncertain who will blink first – a Russian regime committed to destroying Ukraine or Western allies held hostage by opinion polls.