According to the latest intelligence update from the British Defense Ministry on 15 September, Russia has been carrying out a high number of offensive operations across various areas of the frontline. These developments are significant as they not only pose a challenge to Ukraine’s recent tactical successes, but also have the potential to change the dynamics of the battlefield between Russian and Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is important to closely monitor these operations as they could not only affect the immediate balance of power on the ground, but also have long-term strategic implications for both sides and their international supporters.
As reported on social media by the British military intelligence agency, Russian forces have launched a counter-offensive in the Kursk Oblast, where Ukraine has held control of approximately 800-900 square kilometers of territory since mid-August 2024. The report states that Russian forces, led by airborne and naval infantry units, have attacked Ukrainian positions in the western part of the salient and have likely retaken several villages.
This aligns with previous analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on 14 August, which stated that Ukrainian forces had made significant progress into the Kursk Oblast, prompting a significant increase in Russian troop deployments to the region. In response, Russian authorities have increased their force presence in the Kursk Oblast up to three times its original size, in order to counter Ukraine’s incursion. The ISW analysis suggests that this increase in Russian troop numbers reflects the operational pressures caused by Ukraine’s advance.
In eastern Ukraine, the intelligence agency also reports that Russian forces have been gradually advancing around Vuhledar and to the southeast of the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. However, there has been no significant progress towards Pokrovsk itself within the past week. This is consistent with earlier analysis from ISW, which stated that both Russian and Ukrainian forces were engaged in fighting near Toretsk and Pokrovsk. According to ISW, Russian forces have seized Lysivka and advanced southeast of Pokrovsk, while both sides have made minor gains.
In conclusion, the British Defense Ministry’s intelligence update highlights the ongoing offensive operations by Russia in various areas of the frontline, which could have significant implications for the conflict in Ukraine. It is crucial to closely monitor these developments as they could not only impact the immediate balance of power, but also have long-term strategic consequences for both sides and their international supporters.
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