At the Yalta European Strategy conference, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, discussed the current state of the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. According to Budanov, Russia is approaching a critical period, as the full impact of its war against Ukraine will be felt around 2025-2026.
Budanov outlined several key challenges facing Russia, including economic problems that are expected to peak in the summer of 2025. He stated that the negative impact on the economy will become very noticeable for the country at this time. In an attempt to maximize their gains on the battlefield before this economic downturn, Russia is currently accelerating many processes.
One of Russia’s most pressing issues is the supply of munitions from North Korea. Budanov explained that there is a direct correlation between North Korean shipments and increased fighting, with combat operations intensifying for two to three weeks after the arrival of a North Korean ship delivering ammunition.
Budanov also discussed Russia’s domestic arms production, noting significant increases in certain areas. He also addressed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory, stating that they have shattered the myth of Russia’s invincibility. “With the first explosions in Moscow, this myth was destroyed,” Budanov said.
The intelligence chief emphasized the critical nature of the 2025-2026 period for Russia’s global standing. He stated that if Russia is unable to defeat Ukraine by the beginning of 2026, it will no longer be perceived as a superpower. “All that Russia can count on is regional leadership,” Budanov concluded.
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