**Global Turbulence: A Guide to Coming Instability**
The world is facing unprecedented uncertainty and chaos. While many experts have analyzed this global turbulence, few have explored its underlying causes. Let’s break down how we got here.
**From Stability to Instability**
The path to today’s instability began at the end of the Cold War in 1990. This period was marked by great certainty, with economic, political, military, and cultural power concentrated in one center: the democratic “Western world” and the United States. The rules were clear: comply or face consequences.
**Globalization and Its Consequences**
The era of globalization that followed created multiple winners: transnational corporations profited from moving production to Asia, while resource-rich countries like Russia benefited from rising commodity prices. China and its neighbors achieved dramatic economic growth by offering cheap labor to Western capital. However, beneath the surface, societies were transforming in vastly different ways.
**Authoritarianism Rises**
In Russia, a flood of petrodollars enabled Putin’s rise to power, allowing him to dismantle democratic institutions and establish authoritarian control. China followed a similar path, cementing its legitimacy by delivering basic prosperity to its population and consolidating power. Both countries eventually hit the “middle-income trap,” where easy economic gains are exhausted and further progress demands fundamental institutional reforms.
**The Way Forward**
For Ukraine and democracies facing instability, it’s essential to understand these underlying causes. By navigating demographic, social, economic, climate change, and scientific-technical shifts, we can work towards a more stable future.
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