There are three potential scenarios for resolving Georgia’s political turmoil, according to analysts:
1. **The Belarusian Scenario**: The Georgian Dream (GD) government becomes increasingly authoritarian, leading to international isolation and further entrenching the regime’s grip on power.
2. **Regime Change**: Under sustained internal and external pressure, GD’s governance system collapses, forcing the party out of the constitutional framework and leading to new parliamentary elections. This scenario would result in a political reset and Georgia resuming its democratic reforms and Euro-Atlantic trajectory.
3. **Negotiated Crisis Management**: Through international mediation, GD and the opposition reach an agreement to hold free and fair elections under international supervision. This would lead to the formation of a coalition government by opposition parties, with GD transitioning into the opposition.
The Georgian Dream government faces significant challenges, including:
* Lack of internal legitimacy due to the protest movement
* External pressure from sanctions or declarations
* International isolation
The analysts agree that Georgian society needs to continue protesting and maintaining its position on demanding the release of prisoners and new elections. They also emphasize the importance of debunking GD propaganda on EU integration and promoting European values in the country.
Some key points mentioned by the analysts include:
* The need for sustained public resistance to pressure the authorities
* The importance of international support, including sanctions or declarations
* The potential for negotiated crisis management through international mediation
* The need for Georgian society to address GD propaganda on EU integration and promote European values
Overall, the analysts emphasize that Georgia’s democratic trajectory is at a critical juncture, and the country needs to choose between a return to authoritarianism or a path towards democracy and Euro-Atlantic integration.