**Ukraine Makes Small Gains in Kursk Oblast, But Experts Raise Concerns**
Since the beginning of January, Ukraine has made small gains in its push into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian military has advanced over two kilometers, and there are reports that they have broken through Russian defenses in some villages.
However, experts are concerned about the use of limited resources by Ukraine to make these gains. “Spending forces to take small, local successes in the furthest corner of the salient when Ukraine is struggling to hold onto its remaining captured territories amid a serious manpower issue could be net negative,” said Emil Kastehelmi, an analyst at the Black Bird Group.
The situation around the strategic town of Sudzha is difficult, with Russian troops pushing from the flanks and trying to cut off Ukrainian supply lines. “If Russians will manage to cut this road, it will be very difficult to supply Ukrainians with everything – with medicine, manpower, heavy equipment, shells, etc.,” said Ukrainian expert Stupak.
**Russian Troops Push Back Against Ukrainian Advances**
Despite the local Ukrainian attacks on the corner of the salient, the overall Russian offensive continues in Kursk Oblast. Russian troops have been pushing from the flanks, particularly toward the town of Sudzha and from the western direction of the salient. This has made it difficult for Ukrainians to hold onto their gains.
“The Russians were able to counter some of the Ukrainian advances and then strike back,” said Kastehelmi. “It’s more of these localized counterattacks and then just staying on the defense instead of a new offensive phase.”
**Concerns Over Use of Limited Resources**
Experts are concerned that Ukraine is using its limited resources to make small gains in the furthest corner of the salient, rather than focusing on holding onto its remaining captured territories. “We are drilling into the enemy’s depths,” said Yaroslav, a serviceman in the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces sabotage and reconnaissance group deployed in Kursk Oblast.
Stupak also argued that gaining territory is just one side of the medal, the other one is holding it. “It’s a big question because we are using the best of the best soldiers in this land and of the best supplied Western equipment and lots of other directions, such as Donetsk or Zaporizhzhia oblasts, they are suffering from a shortage of shells, manpower, equipped and motivated detachments.”
**Background**
About 12,000 North Korean troops were deployed to Kursk Oblast in support of the Russian offensive. Ukrainian experts believe that Ukraine may have tried to seize the moment when there was a low number or quality of Russian soldiers deployed at this particular point.
The situation on the ground is complex and fluid, with both sides making gains and losses. However, experts agree that the overall dynamics of the battlefield are unlikely to change significantly as a result of these small gains by Ukraine.