The Russian government is getting ready to boost its defense budget for 2025, but at the same time, officials are publicly highlighting plans for social spending. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), this could be a tactic to prevent war fatigue among the Russian population and maintain public support. The defense budget has already increased from 6.4 trillion rubles in 2023 to 10.4 trillion rubles in 2024 due to ongoing conflicts, which is 2.5 times more than Ukraine’s defense budget.
Bloomberg reports that the draft proposals for Russia’s three-year budget show a further increase in defense spending to 13.2 trillion rubles (around $140 billion) in 2025. This is a significant jump from the projected 10.4 trillion rubles for 2024. ISW also notes that the budget predicts a 12% growth in federal revenues in 2025 compared to 2024, with non-oil and gas revenues making up 73% of the total.
Bloomberg’s analysis reveals that Russia plans to allocate about 40% of its 2025 budget to national defense and domestic security. This amount reportedly exceeds the combined spending on education, healthcare, social policies, and the federal economy.
Despite the significant increase in defense spending, Russian officials have been emphasizing social spending in their public statements. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin stated on 24 September that the government will fulfill all social obligations to citizens, including funding for medical care, pensions, and national projects. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov also acknowledged that a large portion of resources are being directed towards military operations, but he highlighted that 40 trillion rubles ($428 billion) will be allocated to 19 national projects over six years. This is twice the amount allocated for the period of 2019 to 2024.
It is interesting to note the emphasis on social spending in official statements, despite the reported increase in defense spending.
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