According to recent data released by Kyiv, September was the second-deadliest month for Russian forces fighting in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion began. The daily reports from Ukraine’s Armed Forces show that 38,130 Russian soldiers were reported as casualties last month. It is not specified whether these casualties include killed or wounded, but it is believed to include dead, wounded, missing, and captured soldiers.
This number is only surpassed by the casualties reported in May 2024, when Ukraine reported 38,940 Russian casualties. An analysis of the Ukrainian figures by analyst Ragnar Gudmundsson shows that four of the top ten bloodiest days for Russian forces since the start of the invasion occurred last month – Sept. 22, with 1,500 casualties, Sept. 28, with 1,470, Sept. 21, with 1,440, and Sept. 24, with 1,400.
The data does not specify where these losses occurred, but it is known that Russia has continued to make advances in eastern Ukraine, including the recent capture of the town of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine has been publishing daily estimates of Russian casualties since the beginning of the invasion. Initially, there was skepticism about the accuracy of these numbers, which is why Western nations were hesitant to release their own estimates.
However, over time, the estimates from Ukraine and its Western allies have aligned. According to John Foreman CBE, the U.K.’s former defense attache in Moscow, “the British, American, and Ukrainian estimates have all come together” over the past year and a half. In fact, a U.K. Military Intelligence report from Sept. 23 stated that the past four months have been the costliest for Russian forces since the start of the war in 2022. The report estimated that Russian casualties have been averaging over 1,000 a day, with a total of over 610,000 since the invasion began.
In addition to the high number of casualties, the Kremlin is also facing a manpower shortage due to competition between the Armed Forces and the military industry for able-bodied men. This shortage is further compounded by the acute personnel shortage in Russian defense production facilities.
The situation is dire for Russian forces, and it is evident that the cost of the invasion is taking a toll on both manpower and resources. As the conflict continues, it is likely that the casualties will only continue to rise.
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