Over the past few months, the war has gradually moved deeper into Russian territory. In September, Ukraine used drones to target ammunition depots in the Russian towns of Tikhoretsk and Toropets, causing over 30,000 tons of ammunition to explode. This included ballistic missiles, despite the Russian authorities’ promise that the warehouse in Toropets could withstand a nuclear strike. The attacks by Ukraine have not only destroyed weapons, but also disrupted the Kremlin‘s logistics, which has hindered Russia’s operations on the front line.
According to Michael Bohnert, a licensed engineer at the RAND research organization, there are many other potential targets in Russia, such as rail yards and port infrastructure, that could be considered long-term targets. Instead of just targeting the depots, attacking the access points to these facilities could also be effective in the long run.
In the past two years, Ukraine has significantly increased its production of drones. In 2022, when the Army of Drones project was launched, only seven Ukrainian manufacturers were able to supply drones to the state. As of August 2024, there are now 87 manufacturers, according to the Digital Transformation Ministry. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has stated that Ukraine plans to produce several million drones in 2025 to prevent Russia from gaining an advantage in this area. President Volodymyr Zelensky also announced that Ukraine can produce four million drones annually.
One of Ukraine’s most successful tactics against Russia has been the use of “drone swarms,” where dozens of drones are launched at once. These drones can now travel over 1,500 kilometers and overload the Russian air defense system. According to Bohnert, Russia has a significant bottleneck in producing additional air defense systems. With many air defenses already at the front protecting troops, Russia does not have enough to cover all its valuable locations. If they want to better defend their depots, they will have to take air defense systems from the front or from protecting important individuals like Vladimir Putin.
Bohnert also notes that Russia’s air defense is not well-equipped to defend against low-altitude targets like cruise missiles or drones. They were primarily designed to defend against high-altitude targets like fighter jets. This means that Russia will have to start from scratch in terms of their air defense capabilities.
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