British intelligence has identified two likely targets for Russia’s second offensive after the capture of Vuhledar, in Donetsk Oblast. Velyka Novosilka is to the west and Bohoiavlenka is to the north.
British intelligence suggests that Russian troops are likely to push their advantage in Donetsk Oblast over the next few weeks, possibly advancing beyond Vuhledar, which was recently captured.
On 2 October, Ukrainian troops withdrew their forces from Vuhledar – a strategically significant town in southern Donetsk oblast. The town was a target for Russian military operations over the past two year, with previous attempts at seizing it resulting in significant Russian casualties.
British intelligence identified two possible targets for a Russian offensive: Velyka Novosilka, located to the west, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Bohoiavlenka to the north, at 8 kilometers (4.9miles). This move would enhance Russian logistics in the region.
Latest Defence Intelligence Update on the Situation in Ukraine – 5 October 2024.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence’s use of language: https://t.co/mliOqaMxhP#StandWithUkraine pic.twitter.com/aO2hncAXfK– Ministry of Defence (@DefenceHQ) October 5, 2024
Vuhledar is strategically important because of its position at the intersection between the Zaporizhzhia front and the Donetsk Front.
The elevated location of the fortress had given Ukrainian forces a defensible vantage point, making earlier attempts to capture it difficult.
In a year’s worth of fighting, elite units of Russian naval infantry have suffered four times more losses than they did in ten years of warfare in Chechnya.
The Russian capture Vuhledar marks a change in the long-standing deadlock in this sector of front.
Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, explained that the withdrawal by Ukrainian forces from Vuhledar is necessary to protect soldiers as Russian forces have taken control of the town. He called for international military assistance, especially long-range weapons systems, to effectively resist Russian advances.
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