Ukraine’s military plan in Donbas involves a controlled, slow retreat from key towns. The goal is to cause maximum casualties on Russian troops while preserving the Ukrainian forces. This strategy aims to exhaust Russia‘s resource in a long war of attrition.
Ukraine officially announced its withdrawal of troops from Vuhledar, following reports that the city had fallen on 1 October. The New York Times reported that this retreat is part a larger strategy used by Ukrainian forces in Donbas.
In the eastern region of Donbas, Ukraine has been losing a number of towns, villages, and cities to Russia. Marinka was lost in January, then Avdiivka and, most recently, Vuhledar. These losses may seem to indicate that Russia is gaining the upper-hand, but Ukrainian commanders and experts say a more important battle is taking place.
The Russo Ukrainian war has evolved into an attrition war, where each side attempts to exhaust the opponent by inflicting maximum loss. Faced with Russia’s overwhelming manpower and firepower advantage, Ukraine has adopted a strategy that Mykola Bielieskov a military analyst from Ukraine’s government run Institute for Strategic Studies calls “trading spaces for Russian losses.”
Vuhledar
The New York Times reports that Roman, a commander of Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade who defended Vuhledar, revealed to them that by the end of summer, Russian forces had a 10-to-1 artillery system advantage around Vuhledar. “How can we fight with one artillery system against 10 of theirs?” asked the commander.
After holding Vuhledar in its grip for more than two year and inflicting major losses on Russian forces the Ukraine announced their retreat on 2 October “to save personnel, military equipment, and other resources.”
In his nightly address on October 2, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stressed the importance of this strategic approach.
“This is what’s most important — to exhaust your enemy.”
Losses
According to NYT officials from Ukraine and Western countries point to the rising number of Russian casualties as proof of the war’s heavy cost on Russia. Nicholas Aucott, a British military adviser, reported that nearly 1,200 Russians were killed every day in August of this year.
Oryx, an analysis site for the military, estimates that Russia has lost three armored combat vehicles per Ukrainian vehicle during the war. According to analysts from the Royal United Services Institute, at the current rate and replacement production of armored combat vehicles, Russia will likely exhaust its stock of armored combat vehicles by 2026.
According to reports, Ukraine’s manpower deficit and firepower disadvantage are beginning to shrink thanks to increased ammunition supplies by Western allies. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s top commander, stated last month that the ratio between artillery shells used by Russia and Ukraine has narrowed over recent months.
It is unclear, however, how much land Kyiv must concede before the Russian Army loses steam – if ever. NYT notes that Ukraine’s August offensive in Russia’s western Kursk Region has further complicated the situation.
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