Georgians seem to be more confident about predicting the outcome of a football game with less than three weeks left, rather than a parliamentary election often billed as ‘a referendum between Europe and Russia.’ Georgians are more likely to predict the outcome of a football match with less than three week to go than a parliamentary vote, which is often billed as “a referendum of choice between Europe or Russia.” Opposition alliances will try to end the 12-year reign of the increasingly authoritarian Georgian Dream. This party seeks to maintain “peace” by obtaining a “constitutional majority”. The campaign is tense and the outcome is uncertain. Here is what we know: the context, polls and past practices, as well as key factors that may determine the outcome. On October 26, Georgians are going to the polls for their first fully proportional election to elect a 150 member parliament. Only parties that reach the 5 percent threshold are guaranteed seats. The elections come after months of political turmoil. This included a series anti-democratic actions by the ruling Georgian Dream Party, such as passage of the Foreign Agents Law and anti-LGBT laws, and the use repressive measures in order to crackdown on dissent. The pro-Western Georgians saw the upcoming vote, which President Salome Zurabishvili called a “referendum”, as crucial. The Georgian Dream, which is running with its traditional 41 ballot numbers, has emphasized scaremongering about Georgia’s potential fate if GD loses. To mobilize supporters, the party also said it sought a super-majority. It will use this to ban opposition groups, further restrict LGBT, and -without giving many details- restore territorial integrity. The four major coalitions are (by ballot number):
(4) Coalition for Change is another union of former UNM faces, bringing together Ahali led Nika Gvaramia, Nika Melia and Girchi – More freedom led by Zura Japaridze and Droa lead by Elene Koshtaria.
(9) Strong Georgia is an alliance that positions itself as being equally distant from UNM and GD. It is led by Lelo For Georgia and includes For People, led by Anna Dolidze and Citizens, led by Aleko Elsashvili and Freedom Square, led by Levan Tutskiridze.
(25) For Georgia led by former GD Prime minister Giorgi Gakharia – another self-positioned “neither UNM or GD” force, which is made up of former government officials and members who have deserted the Georgian Dream.
Other parties that are expected to compete for votes with GD include the libertarian Girchi, led by MP Iago Kvichia who has not ruled out a possible coalition with Georgian Dream and the Labor Party, led by Shalva Ntelashvili. The Alliance of Patriots is a nativist group led by Irma Iashvili, which includes the far-right Alt-Info. It is expected to compete with GD for votes. Two pollsters, Edison Research (commissioned for the opposition-leaning Formula TV), and Gorbi (commissioned for the pro-government Imedi TV), conducted opinion polls on the October 26 elections. The data is generally treated with caution by observers, either due to the polling organization’s past failures in predicting results accurately, or due a perceived lack of honesty among respondents during a fear-driven election campaign. Georgian Dream is ranked at 33% in the poll, while four coalitions of opposition that have crossed the 5% threshold are rated at 55%. The results of another Edison Research poll published a few months earlier were similar. However, the Gorbi poll conducted between September 18-30, and published on October 8 by pro-government Imedi TV, shows a drastically different picture. According to the poll which also includes results with voter allocation, and a +-3 % margin of error, GD comes out with 59.5% – exactly the share of support GD claims to have – with only two opposition coalitions reaching the threshold of 23.9%. Strong Georgia (4.5%) and Gakharia’s For Georgia (3.8%) are both below the 5% threshold according to the poll. Early in October, Edison Research vs Gorbi published their latest projections for 2024’s October vote. Sources: Formula TV, Imedi TV* Gorbi does not separate Labor Party rankings. It is noteworthy that the most recent polls are the lowest Edison Research ranked Georgian Dream in any of the three elections between 2020, 2021 and 2024. The ruling party had subsequently withdrawn from the agreement reached on April 19, 2021 between the parties that stated that if GD did not get 43% of the vote in 2021 locals then snap parliamentary election would be called. The 2021 locals should have boosted more moderate forces. However, Saakashvili’s return was thought to have hardened extreme poles – the opposition voted for UNM while anti-UNM rushed to Georgian Dream. The 2020 Edison Research poll doesn’t include undecided voters. 24% are still undecided. Another trend was that Georgian Dream’s share of support from its 2012 election win (54.97%, 1181,862 vote) to the 2020 elections decreased. The 2020 elections marked GD’s openly conservative turn. The party tried to steal some votes from the far right through nativist rhetoric (e.g. Cartographers’ Case). The AoP barely campaigned in the 2021 elections, while for the upcoming vote, it teamed up with the Alt-Info/Conservative Movement, a far-right and violent populist force, after the latter was repeatedly prevented by the relevant authorities from registering.GD and Alliance of Patriots performance in 2016, 2020, 2021 (locals)per official proportional results (percents)GD and Alliance of Patriots performance in 2016, 2020, 2021 (locals)per official proportional results (number of votes)While economic and social issues, the so-called “real issues,” have been the focus of many of the major contenders during the campaign, the elections seem to be more about what the voters have to lose and less about what they have to gain. The election results will depend on the perception of the majority as to what they believe is the source of stability – whether it’s Georgia’s decades long work towards becoming a more democratic, or “European”, country, or some personal status quo.
Most parties use this tactic to convince Georgians to vote in the October election. Georgian Dream has positioned themselves as a guarantee of peace and security amid the war in Ukraine. They have promised to protect against the same military threat from Russia, and will scaremonger with war if the opposition wins. The ruling party has also advertised that it is a protector of Christian traditional values against what they call “LGBT propaganda” in the West. The GD presents the upcoming vote in terms of “war vs. peace” and “traditional value vs. moral decay.” On the other hand, the opposition has framed the election as a contest between Russia and the west, especially after Brussels sent clear signals that the government’s antidemocratic moves had put EU integration on hold. For many, including a part of the electorate that supported the Georgian Dream in 2012 hoping for a more democratic government, the choice may also be between democracy and autocracy, especially amid GD’s explicit promises of further crackdowns on human rights and freedoms.Higher-than-usual voter turnout is expected in October as many compare the significance of the upcoming vote with that of 2012 when GD came to power. Source: CECEconomy and Administrative Resources
Georgians continue to be most concerned about the economy, but it is not expected that this will automatically translate into votes for the opposition. While some Georgians might use their vote as a protest against their dire financial situation the ruling party is known to exploit widespread poor to keep large swaths Georgians bound to its rule. Georgian Dream, which ruled for 12 years, was known to have built a vast network of favors to hire its loyalists into the civil service and local public agencies. Other state employees might fear losing their job for siding with opposition. The party also implemented various policies such as mass amnesty which was believed to be aimed at electoral goals. Youth and Diaspora
The youth and diaspora are expected to have a significant impact on this election. According to official statistics about 170,000 Georgians aged between 18 and 21 years old will be allowed vote in their first parliamentary election. Georgian Gen-Zers are expected largely to side with the opposition. Great efforts have been made to increase participation of the Georgian Diaspora. In recent elections, Georgian expatriates who usually vote for the opposition have not been very active. In 2020, 66.217 Georgians were registered to vote outside of the country but only 12.247 actually showed up to vote. The low turnout is attributed to the inconvenience of travelling long distances to the polling stations. The Central Election Commission has said that it will only open 60 precincts, in 42 countries. (41 if the Foreign Ministry reconsiders opening a precinct for Israel due to the military escalation). The registration deadline was October 7 and official data are not yet available. However, the number of expatriates registered this year is estimated at 90-100,000. It’s unclear whether more will turn out to vote than in the past, but some independent citizen initiatives are already emerging to help prospective voters with transportation and accommodation.Polling Day Drama
There are fears the GD may be tempted to rig elections. This is partly due to a series controversial changes made to the election code, and partly due to past practices of voter harassment and illegal forms of voter mobilisation on election day. In most districts, voting will be done electronically for the first time. 90% of Georgians will vote electronically. New procedures have been designed to reduce the possibility of manipulation. For example, forcing voters to take photos of their ballots. Civil society representatives called for a massive mobilization of volunteers to monitor the vote. The main local and international watchdogs who have traditionally observed Georgian election are expected to do so again, despite a move by the Anti-Corruption Bureau that prevented Transparency International-Georgia from doing their work. Other civil society initiatives have emerged, such as My Vote Coalition, to monitor the polls.
The Georgian Charter, which binds the four main coalitions of opposition to the Georgian Charter, has been a way for President Zurabishvili to show leadership in the face of opposition voters who are hoping for a coalition after the elections. The Charter stipulates the formation of a technical government, which has a year to reform the country as demanded by the EU.
There are still more than two weeks before the elections. Be on the lookout to see if there are any big surprises that could change the game, like the prison abuse revelations in the weeks prior to the 2012 elections, or the sudden appearance of ex-President Saakashvili just days before the 2021 municipal elections.
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