The article discusses the upcoming spring campaign on the front lines in Ukraine, where Russia is expected to continue its attacks against Ukrainian positions. The author cites experts, including Andrew Kastehelmi and Hardie, who analyze the situation and predict that the outcome of the spring campaign will be crucial in determining the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine.
Key points from the article:
* Russia has devoted a significant portion of its resources to the Pokrovsk direction last year, making it unlikely that they can replicate this effort in two places at once.
* The ability of enemy drones to control logistics routes up to and beyond ten kilometers behind the zero line has made any movement in this zone vulnerable to high-precision strikes.
* Electronic warfare (EW) systems have provided relief for vehicles driving near the front line, but the increased use of suicide drones with a hard fiber optic connection has rendered EW far from a complete solution.
* The weather and return of foliage to the trees present challenges and opportunities for both sides, making seismic changes in scale, technology, and danger occur every few months.
* Ukrainian forces continue to defend certain areas even as the Russians advance on the flanks, making their supply lines vulnerable to Russian drone strikes.
* The deciding factor is likely to be the asymmetrical manpower dimension, with Ukraine struggling to mobilize and train enough combat-effective infantry to patch up holes in the front line.
The article concludes that the results of the spring campaign could bring the most decisive weight on to the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine.