Two Russian MiG-31K aircraft were transferred to Belarus in Belarus this week. This could be a sign of Russia’s efforts at protecting its warplanes amid increased Ukrainian attacks on Russian air bases. The jets hadn’t been seen in Belarus since 2023. According to the Belarusian Hajun group, a MiG-31 aircraft capable of carrying Kinzhal missiles landed on Belarus’ Machulishchy airport on October 10. It was followed by another jet. The last movement of the jets occurred at 3:10 pm local time on October 10, when both planes left the airfield. The group told the Kyiv Independent that their current location is unknown. However, they may still be located in Belarus. This has prompted speculation among Ukrainian officials and military specialists. Peter Layton, former Australian Air Force officer and associate fellow at RUSI at Griffith Asia Institute and visiting fellow at Griffith Asia Institute said that Russia may be moving the jets from Ukraine to Belarus to protect them following successful Ukrainian airfield strikes. Layton told Kyiv Independent that there are only a few MiG-31s and keeping them safe was important. “The MiG-31s are based in Belarus and can fly into Russian airspace and launch their weapons. They can then return to Belarus where they are considered to be safer. “At the beginning of the full-scale attack, Russia had reportedly 12 MiG-31s on the ground. According to a military source, the Kyiv Independent, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s Savasleyka base on August 16 destroyed or damaged at least one MiG-31. Two other attacks targeted MiG31s. One was a strike at Savasleyka, which damaged a jet on August 13, and another on May 15, when two MiG31s were damaged or destroyed on the Belbek Airfield in occupied Crimea. Russian MiG-31BM jet fighters fly above Red Square in Moscow on May 7, 2019 during a rehearsal of the Victory Day parade. (Alexander Nemenov / AFP through Getty Images). Despite these losses, Russia is still able to replenish its fleet. Bohdan Dolintse of the Institute of Management and Strategies said that the aircraft could be repaired in up to a full year. The jets are capable of flying at speeds up to 3,000 km/h and can launch Kinzhal missiles that have a range of about 2,000 kilometers. This puts the entire Ukraine at risk. Layton pointed out that stationing them in Belarus would also bring them closer to the frontlines, increasing their combat range. The Belarusian Hajun Group suggested that the MiG-31s might be conducting system checks or tests with the Belarusian Air Force in Belarus. Oleksii Hetzman, a retired Ukrainian Armed Forces major, believes that Russia could be preparing a major attack against Ukraine similar to the August 26 mass strikes which destroyed Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Air raid alerts are sent out across the country when a MiG-31 is launched, as much of Ukraine’s defense system cannot intercept Kinzhals. Only Patriot and SAMP/T systems are capable to down the missiles.President Volodymyr Zelensky informed the UN Security Council of September 25 that Russia was preparing an attack against three nuclear power stations as part of a plan to dismantle Ukraine’s energy grid before the winter. Andrii Kovalenko, head of the counter-disinformation department at Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, believes Russia could also be planning a provocation against Belarus to blame Ukraine. He pointed out a Russian drone which exploded near the Mozyr Oil Refinery on October 4, close to the Ukrainian Border. “After the strike by the Russian Shahed near Mozyr (…), it became clear that Russia was preparing a provocative action against Belarus,” he wrote in Telegram.
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