(Drew Angerer / AFP via Getty Images) On July 9, 2024, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur will address the US Chamber of Commerce, Washington, DC. (Drew Angerer / AFP via Getty Images)
Estonia has emerged as an ardent advocate for Ukraine’s fight against Russia. It has urged its NATO allies, including the United States, to increase military aid and commit to Kyiv on a long-term basis.
Hanno Pevkur, Estonia’s Defense Minister, has been at forefront of this effort. He has urged Kyiv’s allies to not only help Ukraine fight, but to also achieve victory.
Tallinn, a Baltic country with 1.3 million people, fears that if Ukraine falls it could become the next target for Moscow’s expansionist aspirations.
The Kyiv Independent interviewed Minister Pevkur at the Warsaw Security Forum, on October 1, a year and a quarter after the first interview. They discussed the current support for Ukraine and Tallinn’s preparation for an eventual clash with Russia.
The minister says that after being occupied by Moscow for a half-century, Estonia understands its need to invest in their own defence and to support Kyiv.
Pevkur believes that Estonia is the top supporter of Ukraine based on GDP per capita. This is the “absolute minimal” of what allies should do.
He explains that the best way to avoid a clash between NATO and Russia is to help Ukraine win the war.
The Kyiv independent: Estonia has spearheaded the idea that allies should dedicate 0.25% of GDP to military assistance to Ukraine every single year. Has this proposal gained wider support among allies?
Hanno Pevkur : Yes. Not all allies do that, but many do. Denmark, the Baltic states, Poland and Norway have been doing this for a while.
There are many, many allied countries that are doing this, but it is a trigger for Ukraine to receive more help. We all know that it doesn’t really matter if the amount is 0.25% or even 1%. The goal is the same, which is to help Ukraine win this war.
The Kyiv independent: What capabilities does Ukraine most need right now?
Hanno Pevkur says it’s no secret. Air defense is crucial because Russia still conducts a large number of air raids. This includes all layers of air defense, from machine guns to Patriots.
On the battlefield, ammunition is still a necessity. Ukraine still needs training, equipment and basically everything, even if it has these two most important needs. As we approach winter, it is important to also focus on these needs that are especially important during the winter.
The Kyiv independent: Your country has dedicated more than 1% its GDP to helping Ukraine. Are you concerned that this could undermine your own defence capabilities?
Hanno Pevkur : It has affected us, of course. We understand that we are doing this for Ukraine right now. It is the absolute least because helping Ukraine now helps them fight… but not just to fight.
I always said that we should not help Ukraine fight this conflict, but rather that Ukraine should win this war. We have been fortunate that the Estonian taxpayers were very understanding, we collected new taxes and we had international donors.
I can now say that we have more of everything in Estonia than before the war in Ukraine began.
The Kyiv independent: Estonia plans to introduce a safety tax, and you plan to increase defense expenditures, which could have an impact on the living standards of people and the economy. Do you believe that the Estonian society and other Western societies are ready for this?
Hanno Pevkur : If we do not do this, we risk losing our freedom and independence. Losing independence has far more drastic consequences than spending a few percentage points more on defense. We have seen that we lost a lot in 1940 and for the 50 years during occupation.
Before the Second World War the Estonian economy was comparable to Finland in terms of GDP. After 50 years the difference was 17 (greater for Finland).
We want to live in a country that is independent, and we want to be free. Everyone understands the importance of paying attention to defense.
The Kyiv Independent : Your intelligence has warned that NATO must be prepared for an open conflict with Russia in the next decade. What other practical measures is Estonia taking to prepare for such a scenario?
Hanno Pevkur (in German): We are members of an alliance called NATO. This club has successfully defended the peace in the Euroatlantic zone for 75 years. This is our biggest and most powerful deterrent to any of our enemies, that we are both strong and stronger together.
We have increased our defense expenditures, acquired new ammunition and many new capabilities to defend ourselves. We have basically doubled our Territorial Defense Forces. We have done a lot to prepare to defend our country.
Deterrence, however, means that our defense is built on three pillars. The first is the defense will, which is high in Estonian society.
The second is readiness for defense. We are doing this. I have already outlined all the new capabilities and procurements.
The third is defense cooperation. This includes NATO, the European Union and bilateral agreements as well as regional cooperation such among the Baltic States or the Joint Expeditionary Force, a U.K. led military partnership in Northern Europe.
We have (allied troops in Estonia). We have more than 2,000 allied troops in Estonia every day from three nuclear-armed countries: the United States of America, France, and Great Britain. This is a strong deterrent.
The Kyiv Independent : Russian drones and missiles have repeatedly violated the airspace of allies, including your neighbor Latvia. Would the Estonian military shoot down Russian projectiles if they entered Estonian airspace?
Hanno Pevkur says we have a very specific protocol for what will happen. Remember that we live in peacetime. During peacetime the airspace is wide open, so we must identify what we are going to shoot down to be sure and 100% certain.
The protocol is in place, and everyone can be assured of their safety. There is a list that will be taken if this type of incident occurs.
The Kyiv independent: Some NATO planners predicted that in the event of an open conflict with Russia, the Baltic States might be overrun before reinforcements arrive. What do you think of these predictions after Ukraine’s experience under Russian occupation?
Hanno Pevkur : I don’t have that crystal-ball, and I do not want to have this one. I know that our Estonian Army will defend our country and people.
I know that my allies are prepared to do this and that the new regional plan takes into account all these risks. We will be ready in the near future for full implementation of these plans.
I have no doubts at all about our alliance, and I do not believe anyone should doubt it.
The Kyiv independent: How can NATO prevent an open conflict with Russia?
Hanno Pevkur: Help Ukraine win the war, and do everything possible to increase defense expenditures in order to improve defense capabilities.
We should also send out a message of deterrence that we’re united, not divided, and clear in our actions, if needed.
Martin Fornusek works as a news editor for the Kyiv Independent. He was a news editor at Newsmatics, and a contributor to Euromaidan Press. He also volunteered as an editor and a translator at the Czech version of Ukrainer. Martin studied at Masaryk University, Brno in Czechia. He holds a bachelor’s and master’s degrees in security studies, history, and conflict and democracy studies.
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