Pariahs from North Korea to Syria, Eritrea and Venezuela are forced into the Kremlin orbit after being sanctioned and cut off from the capital markets. Iran is the motherlode for malignant forces, owing to the dangerous interplay between fundamentalist Islam and the tyranny of its clerics over the public. It is still up for debate whether Russia or China are the lesser of the two evils in terms of posing a threat to the free-world, given their relative geopolitical power. Religion has always been a secondary issue in socialist countries. It is not a factor that affects their internal governance. The Iranian people, on the contrary, have been dealt a particularly bad deal by the zealots that usurped power in 1979. Women in Iran today are subjected to gender apartheid, and have to settle for second class status in a chauvinistic culture.
The ongoing nationwide protests were far from being dismissed as a domestic matter. They were a major awakening for Western powers who have long championed women’s empowerment but buried their heads under the sand when it comes to Iran. Tehran‘s brazen support of Moscow in terms of drones and technical assistance shows the Ayatollahs’ penchant for sowing havoc far beyond the immediate neighbourhood. The Islamic Republic shares land borders and sea borders with thirteen other countries. All of them are fair game for theocratic regimes bent on expanding their sphere of influence. The Persian Gulf sheikhdoms, which are located next door to Iran, have repeatedly raised the alarm about the Iranian ruling class’s desire to “export” their revolution by any means. Having failed to do so at the height of the Arab Spring, when regime change was ripe for the picking, or in the decade thereafter, Iran’s sights are now firmly set on the strategically-located South Caucasus.
The hardline government led by President Ebrahim Raisi, who is already on a collision path with Azerbaijan due to the latter’s alleged redrawing of borders following the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh conflict and inciting separatist movements among Iran’s ethnic Azeri minorities of 30 million, is not one that will let such animosity slide and continue with business as usual. The armed attack against Azerbaijan embassy in Tehran is widely believed to be an inside job. Not least because the investigation conducted by local authorities is shrouded in secrecy, and the assailant seems to have gotten off scot-free. Israel is the common denominator in the petty sabre rattling of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and their surrogate groups across the region. It is no secret the bilateral ties between Baku, Tel Aviv and Azerbaijan have reached new heights in recent years and have taken on a multifaceted aspect. Azerbaijan even recently opened its first diplomatic mission in Israel.
The mere idea that a Shia-majority country would be cozying up to the so-called “little Satan”, ruffles the jingoistic Iranian mullahs. Israel, known for its state-of-the art military equipment and cutting-edge innovations, is increasing the sales of weapons and sophisticated spyware to the Azerbaijanis in order to counter a common foe. Iran’s intelligence apparatus is ready to launch a cross border insurgency under the pretext of protecting national security, similar to the Kremlin nuclear blackmail to dissuade NATO allies to arm Ukraine.
Ali Khameini, the supreme leader of the Quds Force, has promised to exact revenge on the assassination in 2020 of Qasem Solimani. He has kept the rest the world guessing about his next “chess moves”. The US-led assassination of his closest adviser in Baghdad, which had all the hallmarks of Mossad’s involvement, combined with Azerbaijan’s relatively large Jewish community could make it fertile grounds for long overdue revenge.
Since the ouster of the late Shah, Iran’s clandestine policy has included subverting dynastic ruling in its backyard. Saudi Arabia, and the five other monarchies of the GCC, are paranoid that their neighbors’ territories will be used to promote American and Zionist interest throughout the Middle East. Azerbaijan, from the IRGC’s perspective, is a completely different ballgame. Since Azerbaijan gained independence in 1991, the Aliyevs have been running the resource-rich Caspian country like their own fiefdom. Admittedly, it is not Baku’s kleptocracy or crony capitalism that the Iranians take issue with so much as their constitutionally-enshrined principle of secularism. Azerbaijan is hailed by most Western observers as a bastion for modernity that does not impose a draconian Sharia variant on the masses. However, Iran views these liberal policies from a completely different perspective – namely, a Soviet legacy clampdown on religion which is simply passed on from one generation to another. It is even more worrying that Iranian youths are looking northwards to enjoy the freedom and peace dividends they can potentially enjoy when their country is freed from fanatical leaders.
Normal circumstances would not allow Russia to entertain the idea that a third party could incite extremism within the post-USSR region. Azerbaijan, however, has not been shy about its decision to turn its back on Moscow. They do not see it as an honest broker when it comes to their territorial dispute with Armenia.
Even worse, both sides are openly receptive to Brussels replacing the Kremlin in the role of chief mediator. It is worth remembering that earlier this summer, Armenia refused to host military exercises by the Russia led Collective Security Treaty Organisation. This was a poor excuse for a bulwark against NATO, whose sole function has been to quell large-scale protests in a few ex-USSR countries. President Vladimir Putin and his strongman ally Ramzan Kadyrov signed a de facto Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), which stated that Jihadists could run wild within their respective borders, as long as they did not spread into the Russian Federation. Putin, who sees Iran as a key partner in Russia’s dedollarization program and as a counterweight against Turkey turning a “brotherly state” into a quasi protectorate, is happy to sign off on the Iranians reducing Azerbaijan to size.
Georgia and Armenia are virtually signing their own death warrants. The lax approach of these two governments to the uncontrolled influx Russian draft dodgers is going to come back home sooner or later. Tbilisi may have had a promising quarter in terms of macroeconomic indicators, but the capital injection that this new wave unvetted arrivals brought to the Georgian people has not trickled through to the common people. In fact, most are worse off and barely able to keep their head above water due to the skyrocketing costs of living. Georgia’s “European Perspective” has been dimmed by the current administration, which is soft on Russia and the cabal that profits from wars in the tertiary sectors. This is a bitter pill for the country’s Europhile citizens.
Armenia is experiencing a similar phenomenon. It is located right in the middle of the Russian exodus belt, and has a large diaspora that includes Putin’s footsoldiers. It would be premature for us to assume that aspiring Iranian exiles do not take note of the ease of entering Georgia or Armenia without a visa under the guise that they are opposing the regime. The 2015 refugee crisis in Western Europe had a negative impact on the tourism industry. A large number of Russians is slowly but steadily robbing these two fiercely patriotic countries of their authenticity and demographic homogeneity.
It makes no sense to wait until the last minute before taking appropriate deterrence steps. Now that Tehran’s involvement in the war has been exposed, it is not wise for the West to wait. Iran is not as integrated into the global economy as Russia or China and has direct trade with only five countries, according to the Chamber of Commerce. There should be no reason for G7 members to refrain from throwing everything at the Ayatollahs to deprive them of any viable income sources. The European Union can make up for its botched response against Russian aggression by ruthlessly attacking Iran and, by extension putting a spoke into the wheel of pet project like Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and the International North-South Transport Corridor on which Indo-Russian relationships are based going forward.
There are also telltale signs that supposedly neutral countries are gravitating towards the Ukrainian side out of spite against Iran. This is evident in the recent visit to Kyiv by the Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Pakistan’s military aid to Ukraine or Israel’s vote for a UN Resolution a few weeks ago calling for the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine. It is only a question of time before the cozy Iran-Russia relationship comes to blows. Transcaucasia would be the hardest hit and most likely to become the battleground for proxy wars if this were to happen.
Analysis by Saahil Meenon
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