Ukraine’s ambitious plan for victory is hampered by the lack of political commitment among its allies. Some of them still believe that Russia can be brought back to Europe.
The Russian war in Ukraine is 11 years old and politicians around the world are searching for a way to end it.
The problem is that the two countries have very different goals. Russia wants to keep its occupied Ukrainian land and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. The Ukrainian government, on the other hand, refuses to cede any territory established by its 1991 border and relentlessly pursues NATO membership.
The international community must support Ukraine in order to achieve these goals. Ukraine cannot continue to be a victim of Russian aggression without the US and EU.
Details of Zelenskyy’s victory plan leaked
In an effort to secure peace at its own terms, Ukraine has crafted the victory plan that President Zelenskyy just presented to President Biden, Congress and presidential candidates Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, in the US.
The plan, which has not been released in full, reportedly contains four key points that will be implemented during wartime, with some elements possibly extending into post-war.
According to Zelenskyy’s statements to journalists on the 20th September, the plan includes: defining Ukraine’s position in global security architecture; continuing military operations (including Kursk, isolating Crimea, and destroying the Russian Black Sea Fleet); strengthening Ukraine’s military capabilities; and fostering joint development with partners. Zelenskyy stressed that the plan doesn’t include direct negotiations with Russia but instead focuses on strengthening Ukraine’s position to force Russian leadership to negotiate fair terms.
Zelenskyy mentioned that there was a “Plan B”, in case the US did not fully support the strategy. The Ukrainian president said that the plan was designed to force Russia into ending the war through diplomatic means. He told journalists: “If partners back it, it will be easier to force Russia into ending the war diplomatically.”
Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources, reported that the plan calls for inviting Ukraine into NATO, continuing US commitments to provide advanced weapons, a path to EU membership and economic/security agreements.
Zelenskyy’s office has said that an invitation to join NATO is also part of the plan.
The Times newspaper, citing its sources, highlighted four main points: security guarantees for Ukraine, similar to NATO’s Mutual Defense Agreement, continuation of operations within Russia’s Kursk Oblast in order to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position; requests for specific advanced weaponry; and international financial aid for Ukraine’s economy.
According to the Wall Street Journal, a key element seems to be allowing Ukraine’s military forces to strike Russian targets in Russia with long-range weapons supplied by the West, even though the US has been reluctant to allow this.
Recent reports indicate that US officials have not been impressed with the plan, pointing out its lack of a strategy to defeat Russia. According to Washington Post sources it is little more than Kyiv’s constant pleas for more arms and removing restrictions regarding the application of long-range missiles supplied by Western countries.
Euromaidan Press spoke to experts about Ukrainian peace plans and victory plans. They also examined what Ukraine requires to make them work, at a time when its future is on the line.
Russia is ready to launch another attack after freezing the conflict
Before the full-scale invasion in 2022, peace attempts between Ukraine and Russia took place. Most notably, the Minsk Agreements from 2014-15.
The agreements called for both sides to cease fire, but controversially demanded that Russian occupation authorities be represented in Ukraine’s Parliament – a condition that was unacceptable to the country because it implied the recognition of entities under Russian control.
These agreements led to a frozen conflict that brought Ukraine a short period of relative calm, before the new Russian full scale attack broke out in greater intensity.
Oleksandr Merezhko, international lawyer and chairperson of Ukraine’s Foreign Affairs Committee argues that a froze conflict would allow Russia time to regroup, strengthen their military and prepare for future aggressive actions. He warns that a frozen conflict could put Ukraine in an even more vulnerable position.
Merezhko claims that the real goal is to “defeat Russia” and “secure Ukraine’s victory.” But, how can this be done?
The US must maintain its position as the global leader in democracy
Merezhko claims that the main obstacle for the plan’s success lies in “the lack of will” among Ukrainian allies.
He calls for a more strict sanctions regime and criticizes a piecemeal approach in providing aid to Ukraine that is causing Ukraine run out of time, and fall behind.
“The idea that Ukraine should be supported ‘for however long it takes’ is logically incomplete. It does not have a logical conclusion. This ending should be to continue to support Ukraine “as long as necessary,” including defeating Russia and ensuring Ukraine’s victory. The expert says, “This is how it should sound.”
He says that not all Western nations are in favor of Russia’s complete isolation, particularly when it comes to oil and gas. Some nations are afraid of the economic fallout from such isolation, including a global depression.
“What we urgently need is American leadership in a free world. The US is the model that European countries follow. It’s important that we are the true leaders of the democratic world, and set an example for other democratic nations by supporting Ukraine”, Merezhko believes.
As an international lawyer he sees Ukraine’s win as part of the broader triumph of international laws, which he believes is inevitable.
The expert defines Ukraine’s victory as “the observance and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.” However, timing is uncertain, and depends not only on Ukraine, but also on other countries and its allies, including those of the Global South.
Oleksandr Merezhko, however, is sceptical about the “neutral” plans of peace proposed by China and Brazil which do not address the return of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia.
He criticizes the two countries for using “empty slogans” in their peace plans, arguing that they fail to answer crucial questions like “Do you want to restore Ukraine’s territorial unity or not?” or “Do you want to apply international law and UN Charter to Ukraine and to this war or no?”
Two rival camps find a strange appeal in Victory Plan
While some observers, like Merezhko, find Zelenskyy’s victory plan reasonable in light of the points that have been raised in the media other experts question its clarity and feasibility.
Oleksandr Kraiev is an international relations expert who points out that the plan has been received in a unique way: it has united both Harris and Trump – “absolutely opposing characters in terms of their foreign policy: One is deeply involved in international affairs while the other leans toward isolationism.”
“When a proposal is backed by rival camps, this usually means one of two things. Either it’s full of empty rhetoric or it’s so vaguely phrased that anyone could spin it to their advantage. Kraiev says that in both cases the plan is devoid of substance or a strategy.
Map out the road to Ukraine’s victory
Kraiev, like Merezhko stresses that the plan must adhere to strict timelines. In his view, however, the Ukrainian side needs to set them straight, and remain realistic, despite the ambitious goal of joining NATO and pushing out the Russians as soon as possible.
“It is impossible to achieve in a single month.” Kraiev says it’s impossible to achieve in a month, and even more so in a few years. The expert suggests two viable options:
“Do we [Ukrainians] intend to do this quickly, but with high costs and significant risks? Or, do we plan to, as Croatia did, take decades to reach the borders of 1991, but only if it is absolutely necessary?
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