Last week, we saw yet another Lukashenko move: the Belarus strongman smuggled illegal migrants across Belarus and to the Polish-Lithuanian frontier in an apparent response to EU sanctions.
The influx, which Brussels has called a “hybrid” attack and “gangster tactics” against the EU, exacerbates tensions within the EU. This is something that both Lukashenko, and his main ally Putin, are delighted to achieve.
What should the West do? What is the strategy adopted by the Belarusian Opposition? What will the Belarusians do if Putin decides that he wants to complete the project of “Union State” with Belarus? GISP spoke with Pavel Latushka, a former Belarusian Minister for Culture and one of the opposition’s leaders.
The Kremlin and Lukashenko have used the illegal migrants issue to create unrest in Belarus’ neighboring countries. What should be the West’s reaction?
As a former culture minister, I understand that the humanitarian aspect is of the utmost importance – saving lives should be the number one priority. Lukashenko uses these people as weapons of war against the European Union. As a diplomat I understand how important it is for one’s borders to be secured. As a politician I can’t understand why the EU doesn’t use the levers at its disposal, the rule of law first and foremost. Why is there no question of criminal responsibility for Lukashenko if we are dealing here with an organized crime group, and everyone can see that this is a special operation orchestrated and directed by Lukashenko, his cronies, to cause chaos? Why have there been no suits filed against him in relation to the deaths of migrants? It would be appropriate to start an international court trial, and summon Lukashenko to defend himself. Then there are the sanctions that are tailored to the situation where Lukashenko is forced to pay for each migrant. He’s making money off them now, so make him pay, so he begins to think about whether it is worth it.
It’s safe to say, however, that Lukashenko will not be stepping down from his position of power anytime soon. What is the current situation and who’s time is it on?
Even Russian opinion surveys show that Belarussians do not trust Lukashenko and that a majority of them do not want him to remain as President. Lukashenko views Belarussians himself as unrepentant traitors, enemies and betrayed by him. As with every dictator, he has to have an enemy to fight. His first enemy are the Belarussians, his second enemy is the West, and his third enemy is Russia, despite the fact that he does not want to admit it.
Belarusians are not allowed to express themselves today, despite their dislike for Lukashenko. He changed the constitution so that even a single word against his regime written on social media can be punished with a minimum 30 day prison sentence. Fear is his main weapon in keeping the people quiet. This can’t last forever, the situation is slowly but steadily approaching a boiling point. He believes he can stop it by putting everyone who speaks out in prison, and keeping the rest in terror. He’s creating a modernized version of North Korea. This is impossible because we live in Europe, we are in the age of technology and knowledge, and thirdly, Belarusians have shown that they want to be free and will fight for it. This scenario will not become a reality for these reasons. Even though Lukashenko may think it’s in favor of him from a tactical standpoint.
Belarusians tried to fight their freedom with public protests a year ago, but it was not enough. What should be done differently in the event of a new wave of public demonstrations?
We need a strategy both on the domestic and international fronts. It has several components:
We must achieve the non-recognition Lukashenko’s as a President. Many countries have said that they do not recognize the elections, but this is different from not recognizing him or his government as president. The European Parliament just did that, but it’s time for the same thing to happen at the level of national governments.
The next step is to hold him accountable for the crimes that he committed using the force of international laws, including seizing an airplane with international passengers and waging a “migrant war” illegally against neighboring nations, not to mention the crimes against his own citizens. He is the leader of a criminal gang that operates on a government level. Legal leverage would be to charge him for these crimes and hold him responsible. Belarus is currently being investigated by the International Criminal Court.
Sanctions are the third element, and they will only be effective if they are both timely and strong. If you delay imposing sanctions, he will have time to prepare.
On the domestic front we should be preparing well-organized, countrywide strikes. All democratic forces should unite to call all Belarusians on strike. One of the triggers could be the referendum Lukashenko plans to hold in February next, to give himself immunity guaranteed by constitution.
Let’s say you achieve some of the goals that you set out to achieve. Wouldn’t increased international isolation of Belarus make Russia more likely to force Lukashenko into accepting Russian conditions and solutions for bilateral relations?
First, I want to emphasize that the Belarusians are the only ones who can bring down the current regime. Our strategy is based on Belarusians taking action themselves. You described a scenario that we would prefer not to see, but could happen. Putin could decide on his own that it’s time to remove Lukashenko, and impose a “ruler” who is in line with Kremlin interest. Another option would be to leave Lukashenko alone, and turn him into a puppet.
While the second scenario would be undesirable, the third is simply unacceptable. I have said that there is no scenario which would transform Belarus into a North Korea on a long-term basis. Let’s also talk about the often-speculated scenario where Putin orders Russian military forces into Belarus – I do not think such a situation is realistic. I don’t think Putin will order Russian soldiers to fire at Belarusians. It would be President Putin’s last day as president, because it would not be possible to explain to a Russian the reason why the soldiers were shooting at Belarusians.
Why are you so sure that any shooting is necessary?
Belarusians will go on the streets to decide how the country is governed. If the Kremlin wishes to take this decision away from Belarusians, it will have to do so by brute force. I don’t believe that’s in the Kremlin interests, given that there’s also another option: to control whoever succeeds Lukashenko. He is too toxic for Russia and requires too much maintenance. Russia isn’t yet ready to integrate Belarus but will be in a few more years. Even Russian polls indicate that the vast majority of Belarusians do not want to be a part of Russia. But I am afraid that if we wait and hope that the problems will resolve themselves, that is just not going to work. I am against this scenario because it would mean that Belarus would only exist on a map, and have a flag at the United Nations. Russia does not want Belarus to be able to determine their own development. It follows the power doctrines from the 20th century. You have to choose an ideology and have an enemy when you are forced to do so.
How big a step does it make towards the unified nation that Moscow wants?
I don’t believe anyone could answer this question because the majority of these documents were classified and no one has seen their contents. This is what Lukashenko agreed on with the President of the Russian Federation. We are witnessing the man who usurped power in our country now deciding its fate as a sovereign nation. Most Belarusians are irritated by the idea of a Union State. It should be transparent, and the Belarusians themselves should decide whether they want it. It cannot be imposed externally or from above. If Lukashenko, the Kremlin and other parties decide to take this route, the new government in Belarus will be forced to cancel any agreement that was reached. This is a real threat against Belarus’ sovereignty. If the Kremlin wants to repeat the scenarios in Georgia and Ukraine, it would be a colossal error for Russian foreign policy. Subjugating an independent nation, Belarus, by force, would be another colossal misstep. It may satisfy someone’s short-term ambitions to turn Belarusians and Russians against each other, but this is not a long-term viable strategy for the 21st century.
Could a new Minsk regime be more flexible and agreeable to the Kremlin’s insistence on deeper Integration?
This scenario is not possible. This is partly due to Lukashenko: as long he is here, he will not allow any structure to be more friendly with the Kremlin that he himself. This would be an existential danger to him. This means that either Moscow will be stuck with Lukashenko or they will need to reach an agreement with the democratic opposition. But Belarus’ sovereignty will not be a bargaining card in any such negotiation, I can assure that. Negotiations would have to take place on an equal basis.
What makes you believe that it’s in Russia’s best interest to treat Belarus as an equal partner instead of making it a satellite? Why would the Kremlin accept less when they believe they can get more from Belarus?
Is it a pragmatist choice to support a tyrant and burn bridges with the Belarusian people, nation? No. Is it morally right? No. Is this a decision based on values or something else? Not really. As time goes on, I think this will become increasingly evident to Russians. We can try to speed up the process. This is in our control. Belarusians wanted this, but it never happened. Russia played a major role in it. They’ll have no choice but to accept Lukashenko who will never benefit them. He hates the Russian leadership. He loathes Medvedev, and he doesn’t like Putin either. I’m sure Lavrov sees Lukashenko himself as an idiot, but Lavrov is a diplomat who has to implement the Kremlin’s foreign policy. Lukashenko is not to be trusted. He only plays with Putin in order to survive. It remains to be seen how long Putin will tolerate this.
Interview by Vazha Tavberidze
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