On July 30, 2024, Ukrainian soldiers fire D-30 Artillery in the eastern Donetsk oblast in the direction Toretsk. (Diego Herrera Carcedo/Anadolu via Getty Images)
The Russian invasion army is racing the weather clock to seize more towns in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas before the ground becomes muddy and temperatures plummet.
Toretsk, a coal mining town, is on the brink of falling to Moscow. This would be the latest of a few towns and villages to fall in recent months as a result of Russia’s relentless Donbas offensive that began a year ago.
“I don’t believe the town will last for long,” said Ukrainian Artilleryman Oleksandr, with the 109th Territorial Defense Brigade in the area. He stressed that there is a serious shortage of people.
Toretsk is a Ukrainian stronghold that has been a hotbed of violence since Russia’s invasion of Donbas, in 2014, following the occupation Crimea. It was in a quieter part of the frontline for most of the first 2 years of Russia’s full scale invasion, which began in early 2022. Then in June this year, Russian forces began to storm it.
The Kyiv Independent reported that the situation was “very bad” and if the command didn’t send reserves in the near future, it would be “very difficult, if the situation wasn’t catastrophic.” Ukrainian military expert Mykhailo Zhyrokhov.
“We are now in the autumn and the Russians know that their offensive will cease when the weather changes, and it becomes difficult to organize logistics. While the weather is mostly okay, they’re trying to capture everything possible,” he said.
The Ukrainian military has acknowledged that the situation is deteriorating in Toretsk where 1,200 civilians still remain. Anastasia Bobovnikova, a military spokesperson, reported on October 7 that Russian troops had entered Toretsk’s eastern outskirts. They are now trying to move towards the central mine located in the western part.
According to Oleksandr, and to military analysts interviewed by him, the fate Of Toretsk is dependent on whether Ukraine can allocate reserves and artillery shells in order to prevent a Russian advance. Ukraine is often forced by a severe lack of resources to prioritize certain sectors of the frontline more than others. This includes ammunition, equipment and manpower.
In the first half of this month, Ukraine lost Vuhledar. This mining town is located 80 kilometers southwest from Toretsk, in Donetsk Oblast.
The Russian advance is intensifying as Ukraine scrambles for resources and weapons to equip its troops ahead of the uncertain U.S. Presidential election.
The regular Ukrainian Defense Contact Group, which was meant to bring together leaders from 50+ countries to discuss Ukraine aid at Ramstein Airbase in Germany this weekend, has been postponed because outgoing U.S. president Joe Biden cancelled his Europe trip earlier this week. Biden postponed the visit because of a hurricane that ravaged the southern state Florida.
“Winter is approaching, we need your support,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron during a meeting on October 10 in Paris. Zelensky was on tour when he spoke, using the cancellation of the Ramstein conference to travel to European capitals and rally support for increasing weaponry supplies to Ukraine.
Zelensky had earlier held talks with U.K. Premier Keir Starmer, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in London.
Some Ukrainian soldiers expressed concern that the instability of Western military assistance makes it extremely hard for Kyiv plan on the battlefield.
“There is no way to plan well… we are so dependent on our allies,” said Anton. He was the acting commander of an 112th Territorial Defense Force Brigade reconnaissance platoon deployed in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
“We are fighting right now and here.” What will happen tomorrow? We don’t know. We may be able to hold these positions, but without artillery shells they will be lost quickly.
Oleksandr is defending the Ukrainian controlled parts of Toretsk. The ammunition shortage has been worsening in his unit since April. There are not enough rounds to target all Russian positions.
He said his artillery batteries, which operate on four different weaponry systems, receive only enough shells to fire five to ten shots daily. He said that compared to just a few months earlier, when Russian troops only tried to advance where they saw opportunities, “they heavily try to assault” Ukrainian defence positions in the region.
The Russian military is becoming increasingly adept at exploiting weak points to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses by using a large number of troops and firepower. After capturing Vuhledar in early October, Moscow intensified its push towards Toretsk. It advanced deeper into the central Donetsk Oblast almost five months after it exploited a poorly organized Ukrainian unit rotation to penetrate the 2014 defense.
The current hot spots of the war, besides Toretsk are the Pokrovsk sector and Kurakhove sector west and southwest of Toretsk. According to Western and Ukrainian experts, there are signs of a possible new Russian push to further stretch Ukrainian forces elsewhere.
Emil Kastehelmi is an analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group. The group has provided detailed coverage on the war using open sources. He said Ukraine faces a difficult balance between its ability replace casualties by fresh troops and trading “as little as possible to inflict severe casualties on the Russians.”
Kastehelmi stated that in this situation, it is always about trading land against (Russian) losses. “Ukrainian commanders must carefully consider which positions to leave to spare their own troops but not allow the Russians to get into too advantageous positions.”
Kastehelmi said that Russia’s Donbas offensive has been “really, really expensive” and a “long process.” It has cost them hundreds to over a thousand soldiers per day, according to different estimates, in the past year.
“If all places cost this much and take this long, the Russians will not be able achieve any of their war goals,” Kastehelmi said, referring the Russian army’s attempts to capture Vuhledar for two years.
Since Russia launched a large-scale attack on Avdiivka a year ago, relying upon a seemingly endless barrage of mechanized assaults of battalion size, it has maintained the initiative on most of the battlefield – albeit at a huge cost in terms of casualties.
After capturing a small industrial city outside Russian-occupied Donetsk, Moscow’s forces have toppled scores of villages in order to almost reach the main logistic artery linking the lower and upper parts Donetsk Oblast – and thereby threaten the city of Pokrovsk and its highway junction.
When Ukraine launched an unexpected cross-border incursion in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, Moscow took advantage that Kyiv had shifted its attention to the northeast and intensified attacks on Pokrovsk. Russian troops are less than 10 km from the key logistics hub that connects the easternmost Ukrainian strongholds to the cities in the west.
Military analysts told The Kyiv Independent, despite Russia’s proximity to Pokrovsk, compared to its 15-kilometer distance before the Kursk incursion that Ukraine appeared to have stabilized the line and the defense lines seem prepared.
Around Kurakhove (a large reservoir) about 30 kilometers southward is another worrying situation. Russian troops are located less than five kilometers away from the town and are trying to solidify the northern flank and the southern flank to threaten an encirclement.
A much more serious threat of full encirclement is developing to the northeast.
Three sides are surrounded by Russian troops as they surround a Ukrainian pocket on both banks of the Vovcha River. The pocket is just eight kilometers away from being completely encircled. Experts are confident, however, that Ukraine can withdraw in time if the situation becomes critical.
Russia is preparing a new push up the southern flank after it captured Vuhledar in October. Vuhledar played a crucial role as it was a junction between the frontlines of Donetsk oblast and the southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to Serhiy Zgurets of the Ukrainian Information and Consulting Company Defense Express.
The Ukrainian military has been reporting since late September that Russia could begin a push into Zaporizhzhia oblast and has started limited assault operations in order to pressure Ukrainian defences there.
Zgurets stated that “(Russian troops are now trying to activate action in the southern direction) to create conditions for us to stretch our reserve (in an area of front line which was calmer).”
Zgurets said that before Russia captured Vuhledar the Ukrainian troops used artillery in occupied Russian territory to threaten Moscow’s logistical capabilities on Highway H20, which leads to cities further south, like Volnovakha or Mariupol. Zgurets said that the town is also important for Moscow because it is located on a high ground, which allows Moscow to create a “reliable transportation corridor” for its troops to Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Kastehelmi, from the Black Bird Group, said that there are signs of Russia intensifying its efforts in areas such as near Siversk in northern Donetsk Oblast.
The Russian Defense Ministry announced on October 4 that they had captured the village Verkhnokamianske. Ukraine has neither confirmed nor denied this claim. It is possible that there were “possible developments in the Siversk region.” It is not clear if these are small Russian reconnaissance units or if Russian forces have made gains in the area.
Kastehelmi explained that “when a country is engaged in an attritional conflict, gradual gains may turn into sudden developments.” “It’s possible for the defenses to start crumbling faster.” We haven’t seen that in a certain area yet, but it is not impossible.
“If the Russians can replenish their losses quickly, and if Ukraine is still burdened with the current problems in terms of equipment, manpower, etc., then the Russians could be able advance more rapidly in some sectors.”
As the Russians continue to advance into Toretsk, all eyes are on the town.
Zhyrokhov said that it was “clear” that the Russian troops would advance up Central Street in Toretsk, and that it was extremely difficult to defend the city with the current number of troops and resources.
Kastehelmi of the Black Bird Group, among others, is more skeptical about Moscow’s offensive capabilities.
Kastehelmi stated that the battle for Toretsk, at the current rate of progress, could continue into Winter. He also believes that it is “unlikely” that the Russians would be able capture the entire city in the next two months of autumn.
Chris York, News Editor of The Kyiv Independent, contributed to this report.
Asami Terajima works as a reporter for the Kyiv Independent. She was a business journalist for the Kyiv Post, focusing on international energy, infrastructure and investment, as well as trade. Terajima, originally from Japan, moved to Ukraine as a child and earned a bachelor’s in Business Administration. She was awarded the George Weidenfeld Prize and the Thomson Reuters Foundation Kurt Schork International Journalism Award 2023 in the Local Reporter category. She was also included in the Media Development Foundation’s “25 under 25: young and bold” 2023 list for emerging media makers in Ukraine. Read more
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