The local retreats and collapses of Ukraine’s defence are a result of chronic manpower shortages, which translate into faster Russian gains across the front.
On October 25, 2024, Ukrainian soldiers camouflage a damaged MT LB (light armored multiple-purpose towing vehicles) in Donetsk Oblast following initial repairs and initial checks. (Fermin Torrano/Anadolu via Getty Images)
As Americans head to the polls for the presidential elections that will determine the course of Russia’s full scale war against Ukraine, the battlefield situation is beginning to unravel in Kyiv.
After two years brutal attritional war in the south and east of Ukraine, dynamism is returning to the front lines.
According to a Bloomberg report published on November 1, Ukraine has lost 1146 square kilometers since the start of the Kursk Oblast invasion in early August. The week ending Nov. 1 was reported as the worst for lost territory in 2024.
On Nov. 2, Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukraine was facing ‘one of the most powerful’ Russian offensives since it began the war.
Over the past few months, Russian forces have made significant gains in their operations near Toretsk and Chasiv Yar as well as Kupiansk. They have also gained ground on their own territory in Kursk Oblast.
The increasing pace of Russia’s advance is proof that the war of attrition, which many officials and analysts from the West had called “a stalemate,” was slowly but surely flowing in Moscow’s favor.
The options available to Kyiv and its allies in order to stabilize the frontline against Russia’s resource advantage are limited.
Desperation on a steppe
As of early November, the most critical frontline sector is located in the southern half (controlled by Ukraine) of Donetsk Oblast.
After quickly advancing beyond Avdiivka to the key logistical center of Pokrovsk during the summer, Russian forces pivot south in early September and cut off a large area of Ukrainian-held territory west of the Vovcha River, with the successful capture the city of Ukrainsk.
The Russian advance toward Pokrovsk slowed down in the autumn and halted at Selydove’s gates, where the relatively new 15th National Guard Brigade took control of the defense of this mining city that once housed over 22,000 people.
In the two months that followed, however, rather than storming Selydove the Russian troops plowed through the fields on both flanks, which were manned by more tired Ukrainian brigades suffering from personnel losses.
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