Russia’s loss of influence in Syria may have implications for Ukraine, but they are not yet clear. Assad’s ouster and the potential loss of Russian bases could:
* Give Ukraine leverage in future peace talks with Russia due to decreased prestige and global perception.
* Weaken Russia’s position in the Mediterranean, potentially decreasing the threat to Europe.
* Not have a significant material impact on the Ukraine war, as there are not many Russian troops in Syria.
Russia may redirect some or all of its troops from Syria to Ukraine, but this could be negligible. The loss of influence and potential base closure could make it harder for Russia to recruit Syrians and may be another net loss for Russia, but not dramatic compared to what they lose in Ukraine every week now.